Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDE
TEMPERATURE RANGE ACROSS STATE...WITH 50S IN THE NORTH AND 80S IN
THE SOUTH. UNSTABLE ALONG FRONT...BUT CAP HAS HELD MOST OF THE DAY.
IT APPEARED THE CAP WAS READY TO GIVE AS OF 300 PM...WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE SOUTH UNTIL 800 PM THIS EVENING.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN TEXAS AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. NORTH OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD TO EAST AND WILL DRAG FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE
NORTH...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE INTO MISSOURI.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND...WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 46
HRO   45  63  50  73 /  10  40  10  10
LIT   54  68  55  78 /  30  60  30  10
HOT   54  70  55  79 /  20  60  10  10
PBF   57  72  58  82 /  40  60  30  10

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-030930-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200PM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT....BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT...
REACHING THE LOUISIANA BORDER EARLY TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ALOFT HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL A THREAT THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVLOP TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS APPEARS
TO BE VERY SLIM...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS MAY
NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
548 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    DE WITT                   AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   ARKANSAS                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

57/46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
621 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0525 PM    3 E RAGTOWN               AR   .88 INCH HAIL
05/02/02   MONROE                         REPORTED BY
PUBLIC

57/46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
621 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0525 PM    3 E RAGTOWN               AR   .88 INCH HAIL 05/02/02
           MONROE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

57/46