Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Little Rock, AR

Issued

May 29, 2002, 8:47 AM CDT (13:47 UTC)

Expired

May 29, 2002, 11:00 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

NWS Little Rock, AR

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Calhoun County, AR

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

000 
WGUS54 KLZK 291350
FFWLIT
ARC013-291600-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
847 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 845 AM...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
  DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY      
  IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY. THE RADAR INDICATED THAT 3 TO   
  4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN BETWEEN HAMPTON AND LOCUST BAYOU THIS  
  MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO    
  OCCUR.

&&

DONT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TO GREAT FOR SAFE PASSAGE. IT ONLY TAKES ABOUT TWO FEET OF
MOVING WATER TO CARRY A CAR DOWNSTREAM.

LAT...LON 3364 9242 3337 9243 3345 9266 3355 9277
          3364 9271

$$

46

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 29, 2:54 AM CDT, 5 hours 53 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE STILL RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS IN THE SHORT
TERM.

UPPER LOW WAS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING...SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN MODEL PROGS FROM YESTERDAY. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...BUT
BY THAT TIME IT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND LESS OF A PLAYER IN
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE PSEUDO-WARM CORE BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES...WITH CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY FIRING DURING THE DAY
AND DYING OFF AT NIGHT...THEN NEW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER OVERNIGHT. 00Z RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NEARLY
BAROTROPIC SYSTEM AT 500 MB...SO THE AVN MAY HAVE BEEN CORRECT
YESTERDAY IN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING THE LOW FROM COLD CORE TO WARM
CORE. THE TREND OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR MOST CONVECTION TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT. WILL USE THIS
IDEA TO FORMULATE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A HEDGE
TOWARD CONTINUITY TO AVOID TOO MUCH YO YO SYNDROME.

REGARDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND THESE COUNTIES WILL ALSO SPEND THE MOST TIME
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY...AND EXPAND IT
TO ENCOMPASS AREAS FROM HARRISON...TO HOT SPRINGS...TO MURFREESBORO.
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THIS AREA HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN CONSIDERABLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...AND THE AREA WILL ALSO INCLUDE A COUPLE OF CITIES WHICH
ARE HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE.

LITTLE OR NO CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRST 24-48 HOURS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

HRO 72 60 79 62 84 / 70 30 30 10
LIT 80 66 82 66 87 / 70 40 30 10
HOT 80 65 81 65 87 / 80 50 40 10
PBF 81 67 82 67 87 / 70 40 50 20

.LZK...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ARZ003-012-021-022-030-037-038-040>042-052.

54

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.