Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2002

STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WEAK BDRY CURRENTLY
ALONG NW CWA BORDER SLOWLY MOVES ESE INTO CWA.

SHORT TERM...SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WL TAKE OUT
TIMING. THE FRONT IS PROGED TO WEAKENING AND STALL OVR FA FOR
MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO REDEVELOP MON AFTERNOON.
AND SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WINDS. WILL CONT
THE CHC SHWRS/TSTMS INTO MON EVE.

ND

...LONGER TERM...TUE THRU SUN...

LLRH FROM WASHED OUT BDRY LINGERS IN W 1/2 CWA TUE ALONG WITH WEAK
500/700MB VORT AND VVEL. WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 CANNOT RULE OUT AFT
TSRA/SHRA TUE SO HAVE ADDED 30 POP BLUE RIDGE W. WILL KEEP DRY E OF
BLUE RIDGE FOR NOW BECAUSE ATMOS A BIT DRIER THERE. TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS FROM OFFSHORE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
CWA CAUSING WINDS TO TURN SE. THIS WILL KEEP SCT CLDS IN AREA BUT
DRY WX EXPECTED.

BY THU...MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW PUSHING NE ALONG NC COAST. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW OVER CWA CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN. HOWEVER...FEATURE IS SO
WEAK DO NOT THINK CHANCE OF PRECIP THU IS VERY HIGH. BY FRI...COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW AND SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL RESULT. FROPA
EXPECTED EARLY SAT MORN AND CWA WILL BE IN NW FLOW AS HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM N PLAINS SAT AND SUN.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH FRI. DUE TO STRENGTH OF COLD
FRONT BELIEVE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO WARM SAT AND SUN SO UNDERCUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES.

MMARGRAF

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

MDZ004-VAZ026-027-029>031-038>042-051-WVZ053-261915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

AT 210 PM DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST
NORTH OF JEROME IN SHENANDOAH COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHENANDOAH
COUNTY BETWEEN 2:15 PM AND 3:00 PM. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LURAY IN PAGE
COUNTY. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL AFFECT PAGE
COUNTY AND WARREN COUNTY WITH SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING BETWEEN 215 PM AND 300 PM.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER.

WALSTON

VAZ028-261915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY VIRGINIA...

AT 255 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM STRASBURG VIRGINIA NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY
VIRGINIA ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF THE CITY OF WINCHESTER. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. BRIEF BUT VERY LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WINCHESTER AREA BETWEEN 3:00 AND 3:15 PM.

SMZ