Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Baltimore/Washington

November 11, 2002King George County, Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 11, 2002, 8:54 AM EST for King George County, Virginia. It was in force for 51 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 11, 2002, 8:54 AM EST (13:54 UTC)
Expired: Nov 11, 2002, 9:45 AM EST
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area: Whole counties

County King George County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 11, 9:00 AM EST	Thunderstorm Wind	King George, VA	Trees were downed onto power lines.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 11, 5:05 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 380 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -157 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 768 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 223 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 245 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 11, 3:30 AM EST, 5 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 11, 3:30 AM EST, 5 hours 24 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
330 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

SHORT TERM...
VERY HIGH SHEAR CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TNGT. HELICITY ON
THE IAD SOUNDING WAS CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW. WL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SVR THREAT
TODAY. VERY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR RGN THRU TONGT.
FRONT WL MOV SLOWLY ACRS FA TODAY CONTINUING SHRAS/TSRAS. SOME
MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AND WILL COMPERMISE BETWEEN SOLNS...DRY
OUT WRN ZONES TONGT  AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS. WITH SUCH STRONG FLOW AND MIXING WL
CONT SCA OVR MARINE AREAS. TUESDAY CAA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE BACK ACROSS THE FA WITH A CHC OF SHRAS ONCE AGAIN.

ND

LONG TERM...TUE NGT THRU SUN...

ONLY REAL CHG IN XTND IS TO TAPER BACK ON THE POPS FOR TUE NGT AND
WED. AVN CONTINUES TO ADVRTZ THE LOW DVLPG ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY E OF
ORF..AND THEN TRACK NE. OUR CWA WOULD BE IN A SECTOR OF NRLY
WINDS...AND I FEEL PCPN AMTS WL BE LGT..IF AT ALL. COULD BE A
SITUATION WHERE COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE CST GET THE RAIN AND WE ARE
LEFT DRY. THE NEW MRF RESEMBLES THE AVN. SEE THAT THE FMR POPS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR WED. THINK THE MDL IS OVERDOING THE PCPN CVRG. HV CUT
BACK ON PCPN LONGEVITY AND POPS. THIS IS ALSO MORE CLOSELY IN LN W/
WHAT OTHER FOS WERE FCSTG.

PRES GRAD FAIRLY TIGHT IN ERN SXNS COULD PRODUCE BRZY CONDITIONS
ALONG BAY WED NGT AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

AFTER LOW PULLS AWAY AREA IS UNDER FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT ZNL FLOW THU
AND FRI. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NGT AM RESERVING JUDGEMENT ON THE FATE
OF THE NEXT UPR TROF/CSTL SFC LOW MRF IS PROJECTING FOR NEXT WKND.
LATER SHIFTS CAN PONDER THAT AS THESE DAYS DRAW NEAR.

WOODY

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SCA IN EFFECT FOR POTOMAC AND BAY.

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 11, 5:03 AM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes before

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-111545-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
503 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING FROM CARROLL COUNTY MARYLAND TO
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA...EASTWARD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AT THIS TIME A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO-PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THE LINE THERE ARE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAST MOVING...AND CREATED WIND DAMAGE IN THEIR PATH.

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE ACTIVATED THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ABW

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 11, 8:18 AM EST, 36 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 11, 4:44 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Madison	46 min
Nov 11, 4:52 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Nelson	23 min
Nov 11, 5:18 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fauquier, Prince William, City of Manassas	27 min
Nov 11, 5:29 AM EST	Tornado Warning	LWX	Fauquier, Prince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park	31 min
Nov 11, 5:54 AM EST	Tornado Warning	LWX	Arlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Fairfax, City of Falls Church	36 min
Nov 11, 6:05 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Prince William, Stafford	40 min
Nov 11, 7:43 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	LWX		62 min
Nov 11, 7:43 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	LWX		62 min
Nov 11, 8:42 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	LWX		48 min
Nov 11, 8:54 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	King George	51 min
Nov 11, 9:14 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	LWX		61 min
Nov 11, 6:16 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Montgomery	44 min
Nov 11, 6:58 AM EST	Tornado Warning	LWX	Charles	32 min
Nov 11, 6:58 AM EST	Tornado Warning	LWX	Charles	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.