Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Baltimore/Washington

August 24, 2002King George County, Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 24, 2002, 4:52 PM EDT for King George County, Virginia. It was in force for 23 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 24, 2002, 4:52 PM EDT (20:52 UTC)
Expired: Aug 24, 2002, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area: Whole counties

County King George County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 24, 5:00 PM EDT	Thunderstorm Wind	King George, VA	A few trees were downed.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 639 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -37 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 611 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 24, 1:45 PM EDT, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 24, 1:45 PM EDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

TNGT AND SUN...
ALL MDLS CUTTING BACK ON CHCS OF PCPN TNGT. NGM HAS A PALTRY 10
POP...ETA HIGHEST W/ A WHOPPING 30 POP. STILL AM NOT WILLING TO
DISCOUNT CHC OF TRW THRU ARND MIDNIGHT AS LOW LVL ATMOSPHERE IS
XTMRLY MOIST...AND WE ARE RECEIVING SOME AFTN SUN AHEAD OF THE FNT.
SPEAKING OF THE FNT...APPEARING LIKE JUST A GRADUAL WINDSHIFT W/
RATHER WK DYNAMICS AHEAD OF IT. SPC THOTS ARE A FEW STRONG/ISLD SVR
ARE PSBL...WHICH SEEMS LIKE THE LKLY SCENARIO TO ME...BUT NOT ENUF
TO OUTLOOKED SVR.

BY 06Z ALL MDLS HAVE FNT LEAVING THE CST. XPCTG SCT-BKN CU THRU
SUNDAY...NW WINDS - PSBLY A PD OF 15-20 KT BUT CAA IS RATHER
SHORTLIVED W/ THIS EVENT. TEMPS NEAR/SLGTLY ABV CLIMO AVGS.

WOODY

LONG TERM...SUN NGT THRU NEXT SAT...

UPR LVL TROF OVR THE NE U.S. WILL LIFT OUT SUN NGT AND MON.
HOWEVER...ENERGY OVR THE NW U.S. WILL DROP ESE ALG THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORMING A H5 CUTOFF OVR TN/KY MON. THIS UPR LVL
LOW WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVR THE SW U.S.
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE ATLC COAST TUE AND WED THEN
FINALLY DRIFT OFF THE W AND WEAKEN THU AND FRI AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OFF THE ATLC COAST BUILDS WWD INTO THE AREA.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE SUN NGT INTO MON. SFC LOW WILL FORM OVR
TN BY TUE IN RESPONSE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LVL LOW. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPR LVL SYSTEM
DRAGGING A WMFNT NWD THRU THE AREA WED/. FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE N OF
THE AREA THU.

EXPECT M/CLR SKIES SUN NGT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MON THROUGH
TUE AS HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY LATE TUE THROUGH WED...OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT DVLPS
OVR THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE IS DRAWN NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AS WMFNT PULLS NWD ACRS THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE RA OVR THE
AREA. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT IS IN THE EXTENDED PD...PREFER TO KEEP
JUST CHC POPS NOW. HOWEVER...IF THE SITUATION PANS OUT...LATER
SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS.

PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCT AND CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THU THRU FRI AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WWD INTO THE AREA AND UPR LVL LOW WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS WWD. WILL LIMIT SCT ACTIVITY TO THE AFT/EVE HOURS THU AND
FRI DUE TO HEATING. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIKELY DRY
SO ONLY 20 POPS ON SAT.

TEMPS STILL WARM MON. A LTL COOLER TUE WITH E FLOW AND EVEN COOLER
FOR WED WITH RA AND E FLOW. WARMER THU AND FRI AS FLOW TURNS S AND
WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE. MAYBE A TAD COOLER SAT BEHIND CDFNT.

WALSTON

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 24, 4:25 PM EDT, 27 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 24, 3:08 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		52 min
Aug 24, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Orange, Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fredericksburg	44 min
Aug 24, 4:52 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		53 min
Aug 24, 5:42 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		2 hr
Aug 24, 5:42 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		2 hr
Aug 24, 5:42 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	LWX		2 hr
Aug 24, 3:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Charles	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.