Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
300 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...

THE PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED - NOW ITS JUST WAIT FOR SOMETHING TO
HAPPEN. DAYTIME HEATING/HI RH HAS PUSHED SFC BASED CAPE OVR 3000 IN
MUCH OF THE CWA. ANY CELLS THAT DO DVLP COULD BE PULSE SVR. BETTER
CHC WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AS FNTL BAND DRAWS CLOSER. BOXES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OH/KY...AND XPCT THESE WL CONTINUE BEING
ISSUED INTO THE EVENING HRS. SPC IS CONSIDERING BOXING MUCH OF OUR
CWA. STAY TUNED...

MDLS CONTINUALLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FNT...W/ WK WV FORMING OVR
SRN VA THURS AFTN. DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES CHC OF SVR IN THE SE
CORNER OF THE CWA...AND GNRL TSTMS ACROSS RMDR OF AREA THURS. WL
CONTINUE POPS DURING THU/THU NGT. TEMPS COOLER ON THURS W/ INCRSD
CLD CVR.

WOODY

LONG TERM...FRI THRU NEXT WED...

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THRU THE AREA FRI AND SHOVES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCD SFC WAVES TO THE SE OF THE AREA. HGTS RISE OVR THE
WEEKEND AS STG UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS ALG THE E COAST. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHR BY MON. UPR LVL RDG SHIFTS OFFSHR BY TUE/WED AND NEXT
UPR LVL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE ASSOCD SFC FNT WILL MOVE ACRS
THE REGION WED.

TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR
LATE THU AND FRI. WILL KEEP CHC OF SHRA GOING INTO EARLY FRI MORNING
IN AREAS E OF THE BLUE RDG. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CLR THINGS OUT FOR
LATE FRI WITH CLR SKIES OVR THE WEEKEND. AIR MASS OVR THE AREA WILL
BE PLEASANT BY JUNE STANDARDS. ONLY THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE
ONSHORE FLOW BUT WITH SFC HIGH OVRHD...THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL RULE SO
CLR FCST.

SOME CI COMING OVR THE RDG ON MON BUT STILL M/S. AIR MASS SHOULD
BECOME UNSTABLE AS UPR LVL RDG AND SFC HIGH SLIDE OFFSHR SO WILL
HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TUE AFT/EVE WITH A BETTER CHC WED AS
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE AREA.

WITH SUCH A STRONG UPR LVL RDG AND HIGH HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WENT A BIT ABV MRF MAX TEMPS AND EVEN I MAY
NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH.

WALSTON

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-052200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
130 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA FORECASTS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
INCLUDES MARYLAND...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY... BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

ABW

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-060100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
420 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 389 VALID UNTIL 9:00 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...

VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
  ALBEMARLE             ARLINGTON             AUGUSTA
  CLARKE                CULPEPER              FAIRFAX
  FAUQUIER              FREDERICK             GREENE
  HIGHLAND              KING GEORGE           LOUDOUN
  MADISON               NELSON                ORANGE
  PAGE                  PRINCE WILLIAM        RAPPAHANNOCK
  ROCKINGHAM            SHENANDOAH            SPOTSYLVANIA
  STAFFORD              WARREN

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
  CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG           CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE
  CITY OF FALLS CHURCH             CITY OF FAIRFAX
  CITY OF ALEXANDRIA               CITY OF MANASSAS PARK
  CITY OF MANASSAS                 CITY OF WINCHESTER
  CITY OF HARRISONBURG             CITY OF STAUNTON
  CITY OF WAYNESBORO

MARYLAND COUNTIES AND CITIES INCLUDED ARE
  ALLEGANY              ANNE ARUNDEL          BALTIMORE
  BALTIMORE CITY        CALVERT               CARROLL
  CHARLES               FREDERICK             HARFORD
  HOWARD                MONTGOMERY            PRINCE GEORGES
  ST. MARYS             WASHINGTON

DCC001-060100-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM
KEY BRIDGE TO SMITH POINT AND THE CHESAPEAKE FROM NORTH OF POOLES
ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

DMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
458 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    MARTINSBURG VICINITY      WV   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/02   BERKELEY                       TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

JLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
501 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0458 PM    FRONT ROYAL               VA   .75 INCH HAIL
06/05/02   WARREN

JLW

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