Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS51 KLWX 282129
FFSLWX
WVC027-282200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
525 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST  
VIRGINIA HAS EXPIRED.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSED TWO ROAD CLOSURES IN THE 
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY AT AROUND 415 PM. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS 
HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY 
AFFECTING THE COUNTY. 

HOWEVER OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL AFFECTING NEARBY AREAS IN 
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND STILL POSE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN IN 
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY. 

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

$$
JLW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1245 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

...QUICK UPDATE FOR FLOOD WATCH...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FRESHEN UP FIRST PD OF ZONES. DEW PTS IN THE
RDF WERE RAISED AND MAX QPF WAS PUT AT 1-2 INCHES IN TSTMS. LOWERED
AREA QPF SINCE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE LOCALIZED. MORNING SNDG HAS A
CAPE NEAR 1500 AND PW OF 1.4 INCHES. LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL AGAIN
LEAD TO PSBL ISOLD FLASH FLOODING WITH AFTN AND EVE TSTMS. BMW

----- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -------

TDY THRU WED...

RDGG ALOFT FM BERMUDA HIGH PRES WL DOMINATE RGN THRU WED W/NO CHG IN
AMS.

DWPTS IN 60S AND MOISTURE FM ERLIER CONVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN AM
FOG OVR FA. FOG SHUD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING DUE TO DAYTIME HTG.
RESIDUAL LOW LVL RH WL RMN OVR FA TDY...W/DEEPEST MOISTURE OVR NW
PTN. AMS WL BE UNSTABLE AND CONVECTION SHUD FIRE AGN THIS AFTN ON
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FM PREV CONVECTION. SINCE IT WL BE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE PCPN WL OCCUR...WL BROADBRUSH AREA FM DCA
WEST W/30 POP.

WENT A LITTLE HIER THAN FWC/MAV TEMPS DUE TO PROJECTED H85 TEMPS OF
+13-14 DEG C. SE FLOW WL KEEP SE COUNTIES IN 70S.

WL CONT CHC OF PCPN INTO THIS EVE THEN HV PC. X-SECTS SHOWED LOW LVL
RH AFT 06Z TNGT...SUGGESTING FORMATION OF FOG/ST WHICH SEEMED RSNBL
GIVEN NO CHG IN AMS. WENT A BIT HIER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.

AMS WL BE A BIT DRIER ON WED. WL CONT PC FCST W/TEMPS ARND 80.

ARTHUR

WED NIGHT THRU MON...HAVE GIVEN UP ON BAHAMAS LOW AS A PRIMARY STORM
THREAT. WILL LEAVE THU AS PSUNNY. THINK ANY EFFECT WOULD BE TO HELP
SUPPLY SOME RH TO A COLD FRONT MOVNG THRU ON FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH THE
00Z AVN CREATES A BIT OF A DC SPLIT IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS BETWEEN
THE N STREAM SYSTM AND THE TROPICS LOW. IN ANY CASE WILL CONT WITH
MCLDY FOR FRI WITH CHC SHRA AND TSRA. ALL THE EXTNDED MDLS HAVE US
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ON SAT WITH NEARLY BREEZY CONDTNS. 850
TMPS DON/T DROP TOO MUCH HOWVER ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 12C... SO ONLY A
FEW DEGS OF COOLNG FOR THE WEEKEND. SAT AND SUN BOTH LOOK FINE AS
HIGH PRES MOVES IN. MON WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE S IN ADVNCE OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS.

STRONG

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-281915-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1111 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MARYLAND... THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON.

MANY OF THESE AREAS EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS. AS A RESULT THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN MANY OF THESE AREAS AND
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS MAY INITIATE FLOODING. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING CAUSING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG WINDS OR
HAIL.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/LWX

ND