Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 280109
FFSLWX
VAC179-280200-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
905 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR STAFFORD COUNTY 
HAS EXPIRED AT 900 PM EDT...

SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM RADAR SHOWED NO THUNDERSTORMS IN STAFFORD COUNTY 
VIRGINIA. HOWEVER TWO SMALL THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST 
ACROSS SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY BUT THESE STORMS WILL NOT ENTER 
STAFFORD. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. SMALL 
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA WERE RECEDING. SOME ROADWAYS 
IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY BE STILL COVERED 
WITH WATER. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED 
ROADWAYS.

.END/SMZ LAT...LON 3847 7761 3835 7749 3848 7733 3858 7749

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
315 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED JUST E OF BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND ALONG POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TODAY ON UPSLOPE SE WINDS. STORMS HAVE BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS BLO 500MB. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AS
HIGH AS 1.5 IN/HR SO HAVE BEEN MONITORING ALL CELLS FOR FLASH
FLOODING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR W 1/2 CWA.
WILL ALSO MONITOR CELLS FOR HAIL DUE TO CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG.

NO PRECIP E OF BLUE RIDGE ATTM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POPCORN SHRA/TSRA
THRU SUNSET BECAUSE WEAK BDRY STILL REMAINS NEARBY. BELIEVE BDRY
SOMEWHERE NEAR LINE FROM IAD TO BALT CITY THAT AREA WILL HAVE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOMETHING DEVELOP. ANY POPCORN PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS E
OF MTNS SHUD END BY MIDNIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUED SHRA/TSRA
IN MTNS OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH DEW PTS. W OF BLUE
RIDGE FOG WILL BE ENHANCED BY AFT/EVE PRECIP. E OF BLUE RIDGE
SOME CLRG EXPECTED TO HELP FOG FORM LATE.

WILL CONTINUE SCT SHRA/TSRA IN MTNS AND JUST E OF BLUE RIDGE INTO
TUE EVE BECAUSE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AND LLRH STILL FCST TO
BE AROUND. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT E OF MTNS BECAUSE MODELS SHOW
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO E CWA AS UL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN
TUE. DRIER AIR REACHES ENTIRE CWA BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG.

MMARGRAF

LONG TERM...SOUTHEASTERLY LL FLOW IS PROGGED WED WHICH SHOULD GIVE
US SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. ALSO SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO START TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE S CAROLINA COAST BY LATE WED/THU.
BEST CHC OF PCPN STILL LOOKS TO BE THU... AND THEN AGAIN ON FRI WI
PREFNTL SHWRS/TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...BUT THE NORTHERN STEAM BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERNS THROUGH WEEKEND. SFC HI PRES BLDG IN WITH COOLER AND BREEZY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE WKND. ND

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR ZONES MDZ002>004...MDZ009.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR ZONES VAZ021... VAZ025>031...
VAZ038>042...VAZ051>053.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR UNTIL 8 PM FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED 2ND REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
601 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    NORTH CENTRAL PORTION     WV   FLASH FLOODS
05/27/02   HARDY                          CULVERT ALONG FORT HILL RD
                                          ON HARDY/HAMPSHIRE CO
                                          BORDER BACKED UP AND CAUSED
                                          HOME TO BECOME SURROUNDED
                                          BY WATER. REPORTED BY 911.

0434 PM    MOOREFIELD                WV   FLASH FLOODS
05/27/02   HARDY                          MUD AND FLOOD WATERS WASHED
                                          ONTO ROUTE 220 JUST OUTSIDE
                                          OF MOORFIELD AFTER CULVERT
                                          OVERFLOWED. REPORTED BY 911.

MKM

DCZ001-MDZ003-004-009-010-013-VAZ041-042-051>055-WVZ052-053-280130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
631 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF DC...

AT 6:30 PM THE WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING IS MONITORING A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA EXTENDS FROM LOUDOUN COUNTY
SOUTH ACROSS FAUQUIER COUNTY TO CULPEPER COUNTY. THIS AREA OF STORMS
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/LWX