Tornado Warning 19, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

INTERESTING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHAPING UP WITH PLETHORA OF FEATURES
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO CURRENTLY SPINNING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE WITH H25 SPEED MAX ROTATING THRU BASE OF TROF NEAR EL PASO
AT 12Z. SFC ANAL AT 18Z SHOWS DRYLINE HAS MIXED INTO MY WESTERN CWFA
WITH CU BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
LOCATED NW TO SE FROM NEAR TULIA INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MAIN
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
CURVING TO ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS THIS AREA...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE SOON. MAIN SHOW
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK IN AREA OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INVOF OF BOUNDARY. TORNADO THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE
ENHANCED WITH FAVORABLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOWER LCL/S.
SEE SWODY1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

MODELS CONTINUE THEME OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW WEST OF LUBBOCK TONIGHT
THEN DRIFTING IT SOUTH ON TUESDAY. RESULT IS TO DRAG A WEAK FRONT
THRU THE CWFA WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST DURING THE DAY. LOWERED MAXES
A TAD FOR TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW LOOK TO INHIBIT
WARMING. WITH FRONT IN AREA AND ANY LEFTOVER TSTM BOUNDARIES
INHERITED FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF POPS LOOKS GOOD. REST OF FORECAST
ALSO LEFT INTACT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THUR-MON WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME STORMS
SUN-MON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FRIONA      57/83/57/87  3221
TULIA       58/83/58/87  5221
BROWNFIELD  60/88/61/91  2331
LUBBOCK     61/86/60/90  4331
CHILDRESS   64/83/63/88  +431
ASPERMONT   66/86/65/88  7431

.LUB...NONE.

SGE

TXZ021>044-271930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE DRYLINE...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAINLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...WILL MAKE TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

TXZ021>026-028>032-034>038-040>044-280100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
148 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

TORNADO WATCH 344 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL OF THE THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND ALL BUT THE
EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...LAMB...HALE
FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING
TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...KENT...STONEWALL.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

TXZ021-022-028-034-272110-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

PARMER...CASTRO...LAMB...AND HOCKLEY