Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THE MCS THAT MOVED INTO N-CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM. DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN 12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATED. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING LOW CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS
HAMPERED INSOLATION. BREAKS ARE MORE ABUNDANT WEST AND NORTHWEST
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY FROM DENVER CITY TO HART WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY
COMING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-27 THEN
SOUTHWEST TO BROWNFIELD. 12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS INDICATED CAP WOULD LIKELY ERODE BY 21Z. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 25H JET MAX.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF AMARILLO AND EXPECT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL DATA
SHOWED STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH SPLITTING STORMS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODEST AT BEST...STORMS WOULD
HAVE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR 0-3 KM HELICITY TO
INCREASE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY TRANSFORM
INTO MCS WHICH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
90 BY MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO LOW MONDAY AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RETURN IN TIME FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON LATER TIME PERIODS WITH THE TIMING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ECMWF/CANADIAN AND
NOGAPS ARE SLOWER WHILE THE MRF IF PROGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY LEANING TOWARD THE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BY FRIDAY AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FRI 52 83 53 88 / 10  0  0  0
TIA 54 85 56 88 / 30  0  0  0
CDS 58 85 61 90 / 40  0  0  0
BNF 52 87 53 91 / 20  0  0  0
LUB 55 86 57 90 / 40  0  0  0
ASP 60 85 63 89 / 60  0  0  0

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY

TXZ021>044-131930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH
PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND
EAST OF LINE FROM NAZARETH TO LITTLEFIELD TO BROWNFIELD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.