Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

AT 19Z COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN FROM JUST SOUTH
OF SNYDER TO NEAR HOBBS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL JET MAX WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH MID LEVEL JET AND FRONT IN THE AREA WILL GO CATEGORICAL ON
POPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES NEAR
THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED:ALTHOUGH NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THEY GENERALLY SHOW
AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST
EARLY SATURDAY. WHERE THEY DIFFER IS ON THE SPEED AND MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW/SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST. WILL GO WITH NCEP
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH BEST CHANCE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP.

FRIONA      35/45/36/56  7522
TULIA       36/47/37/56  7522
LUBBOCK     40/49/40/56  8622
BROWNFIELD  41/50/41/58  8622
CHILDRESS   40/48/40/58  8732
ASPERMONT   45/54/43/58  8732

.LUB...NONE.

JV/08

TXZ021>044-230000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER AND MOVE EAST INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.