Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT...WHICH ATTM EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE
CWFA NEAR A KCDS-SEAGRAVES LINE. DECENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
SRN COUNTIES WITH LIS OF -4 TO -6 DEGREES AND CAPE OF 2K-3K J/KG.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT ISOLD SVR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE
LOWEST 2K PER THE JTN PROFILER SUGGEST STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT SO BRIEF PERIODS OF SVR HAIL/WIND AS STORMS MATURE
WILL BE THE THREAT OF THE DAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA TONIGHT AND WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ON MON. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE SRN ZONES ON MON TO CONTINUE LOW POPS. STABLE AIR
SPREADS INTO NERN HALF SO CHANCE OF RAIN THERE IS VERY LOW. UPPER
LOW ANALYZED OVER SERN CA/SWRN AZ AT 12Z WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY ESE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
IT INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE OVER WTX MON NGT IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM AND
CHANGE OF PRECIP INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. CHANCE OF PRECIP EVEN
GREATER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. WILL TAPER POPS BACK ON WED AS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE E. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENT PROGS INDICATE A MORE NLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE FIRST
SYSTEM AND IF THAT IS THE CASE WE MAY BE DRY SLOTTED WITH VERY
LITTLE PRECIP POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY LOW POPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT TIME RANGE.

FRIONA/TULIA        45/61/47/60 3257
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK  49/64/50/63 3357
CHILDRESS           49/68/50/67 3136
ASPERMONT           52/69/53/68 5336

.LUB...NONE.

EJC

TXZ021>044-070000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND OVER ALL OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PLAINS TO LEVELLAND TO LUBBOCK TO MATADOR
TO PADUCAH.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AT NOON WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES MAKES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A
POSSIBILITY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CAPROCK.