Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
210 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM CLOVIS TO DIMMITT TO HAPPY TO JUST SOUTH OF GAGE. THE
FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR AT FRIONA. BEGINNING TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
CAUSING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WITH SUCH A STRONG
SYSTEM TO THE WEST...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO
MAY NOT HAPPEN IF CONVECTION OVER THE NW FA BEGINS AND PUSHES THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
OUT WEST. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE SWODY1 AND SWOMCD.

THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL GET KICKED TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS COLORADO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SFC TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY. MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LATER THURSDAY EVENING THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO MID DAY FRIDAY.
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FA COULD SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE KICKER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE ACTUAL SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIONA      53/76/46/71  4100
TULIA       56/77/48/72  4210
LUBBOCK     66/82/53/75  5210
BROWNFIELD  64/81/52/76  5100
CHILDRESS   68/85/57/77  5330
ASPERMONT   69/89/59/80  3330

.LUB...NONE.
AC

TXZ021>044-022000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS STATE LINE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD OR INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AS AN INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.