Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2002

A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK VORTICITY
AXIS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WEST.
MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS ETA USUALLY DOES BETTER WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL TEND TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION...THAT IS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN OPENS UP AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
A PACIFIC FRONT/DRY LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY. THUS EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS FRONT AND DRY LINE ACT AS FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.

EXTENDED:STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE 01/00Z
MRF HAS BACKED OFF ON STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SUNDAY FROM THE 30/12Z RUN. IT HAS COME BACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE
UKMET AND ECMWF WITH A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST.

FRIONA      59/80/56/77  2353
TULIA       58/80/56/77  2353
LUBBOCK     62/85/60/81  2243
BROWNFIELD  63/86/61/82  2243
CHILDRESS   67/85/64/80  1354
ASPERMONT   68/89/68/86  -144

.LUB...NONE.

JV/08

TXZ021>044-020000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 1 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE
A HIGH DANGER FOR GRASS FIRES...THUS ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED ON FRIDAY.