Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2002

LBB 88D AND MESONET OBS SHOWING FRONT HAS PUSHED TO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION FROM PLAINS TO POST TO LIKELY BETWEEN
ASPERMONT AND GUTHRIE. RADAR LOOP SHOWS PART OF THE FRONT STILL
PUSHING SSWD NEAR POST WHILE FURTHER WEST THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT SLOWLY NWD. THUS THINK THAT BIG SWD PUSH IS FINISHED.
MEANWHILE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST TO TAHOKA. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...
GOOD MOISTURE TONGUE PUSHING UP AGAINST FRONT WITH GAIL SHOWING
82/64. ALONG THIS AREA CU STARTING TO GO UP UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. THIS
IS PREFERRED AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
NEWD ACRS THE FRONT. POPS LOWER TO THE WEST AND NW...BUT WITH MOIST
AIR OVERRUNNING SHALLOW AIRMASS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE...PARTICULARLY ACRS NERN ZONES WHERE COLD AIR THE DEEPEST.

12Z MESOETA DID A DECENT JOB WITH THE FRONT TODAY...MAYBE JUST
30-60 MILES TOO FAR NORTH WITH IT. THIS GIVES A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE
TO THE SCENARIO FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN
PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT TOMORROWS ETA PROGS WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH. ATTM ETA PROGS IS BEST FIRST GUESS. THUS SETUP SIMILAR
TO THAT DISCUSSED IN THE SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK AND WILL NOT GO INTO
DETAILS HERE. UPSHOT IS EXPECT FRONT TO LIFT NWD...ESPECIALLY ON
WRN END...DRYLINE TO PUSH EAST TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
THUS A TRIPLE POINT EAST OF LUBBOCK WITH FAVORABLE CAPE AND WIND
FIELDS FOR SEVERE ACRS ERN ZONES.

THINGS THEN SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER LOW ACRS THE WRN
US EJECTS EWD ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOL PUSH THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE RIGHT THROUGH THE FA SUNDAY MORNING FAIRLY UNIMPEDED. LONGER
TERM MAY BECOME A BIT UNSETTLED WITH WSWLY UPPER FLOW OVER FA AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SRN CALIF COAST AND ANOTHER FRONT IS
ADVERTISED MID TO LATE WEEK.

FRIONA      50/77/45/73 2210
TULIA       53/75/46/74 3330
LUBBOCK     57/82/50/77 4330
BROWNFIELD  57/84/51/77 3210
CHILDRESS   57/76/51/76 5440
ASPERMONT   61/85/58/79 6550

.LUB...NONE

TXZ021>044-191930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF A TAHOKA TO
CROSBYTON TO FLOYDADA TO MEMPHIS LINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MOVE INTO THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.