Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
110 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

18Z MAP HAS SURFACE LOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH DRYLINE
TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY 00Z. DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW, SHOULD NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS OVER OUR
AREA OWING TO INCREASING ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DEEPENS. THUS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PUSH ON THE
DRYLINE AND THIS WOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH 00Z. MEANWHILE, COMBINATION OF EASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW, AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROF AXIS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL SPREADING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG
THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CAP. MESOETA SUGGESTS THE MAIN RISK OF
STORMS IN OUR AREA WOULD BE NORTHEAST ZONES, WITH MINIMAL RISK
SOUTHWEST. STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT, AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER CIN WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH HIGH DEW POINT AIR. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. MESOETA SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH DIMMITT AND JAYTON, HOWEVER WELL SEE
HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW LOOKS QUIET
BEHIND MCS AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES. SUNDAY NIGHT MAY SEE STORMS MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW, THIS CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED TO WESTERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS QUIET, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING
MAX HEATING, LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR EXTENDED WOULD EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION, IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS.

PRELIMINARY:
FRI 59/83/58/89 1021 TIA 58/83/60/88 4010 CDS 65/83/61/88 7100
BNF 61/87/61/92 -010 LUB 60/85/61/88 3010 ASP 66/84/60/85 5200

.LUB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-160600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
726 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...
COTTLE...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.