Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
130 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF 18Z.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. STORMS MAY INITIATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THIS FRONT.
OTHER POSSIBILITY IS IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS BACK
NORTH. WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER
FACTOR FAVORING HIGH CHANCE WEST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED
STORMS, WHICH MAY INITIATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST OR
NORTHWEST, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LINGERING CHANCE FRIDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST, THEN SURFACE HIGH PUSHES IN AND
CHANCE OF STORMS DIMINISHES. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET, ALTHOUGH WILL
WATCH FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST THIS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. BELIEVE CIN WILL HOLD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LACK OF APPARENT LOW LEVEL FOCUS, AS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
CHANCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED CHANCE MAINLY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MRF BUILDS THE RIDGE BY LATE WEEK WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCE.

PRELIMINARY:
FRI 63/82/60/89 62-- TIA 60/83/63/93 62-- CDS 66/83/64/93 2111
BNF 63/85/63/97 640- LUB 63/85/63/94 52-- ASP 67/85/63/93 32--

.LUB...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
955 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 AM    MEMPHIS                   TX   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/02   HALL                           REPORTED BY FIRE DEPT

TXZ021>044-131930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE AS
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. ONCE THE STORMS
DEVELOP THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TXZ039>043-140100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

GARZA...KENT...LYNN...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.