Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
210 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

COMPLEX SFC ANALYSIS EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CRUISING SOUTH TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA FROM
THE PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTNDG ACROSS OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
NORTH...TRUE COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
NEBRASKA. DRYLINE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH LOW TO MID
60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE TO ITS EAST. BUILDING CU ALREADY DEVELOPING
ALONG STATE LINE SOUTH OF CLOVIS WITH FLATTER CU NOTED ACROSS
EASTERN CWFA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NR 70. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...DRYLINE
HAS NOT MADE MUCH OF A PUSH EAST. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
THE 90S...FEEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY ONCE AGAIN
IGNITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE TO ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER...IF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAN
BE OVERCOME. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN ABUNDANT CAPE AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SEE SPC SWODY1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. AS WITH
THE CASE THE LAST FEW EVENINGS...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME DUE TO
WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THRU CWFA THURSDAY AFTN. MAX TEMPS
COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING OF FROPA AND RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AREAWIDE
THUR-FRI WITH FRONT IN AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...ESTABLISHMENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
FAVOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS AT THE SFC. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP SHOP THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN US STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER TROF WITH UPR RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
AVN ALSO ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT COMING THRU LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

FRIONA      67/85/60/82 3343
TULIA       68/87/62/83 3343
LUBBOCK     71/91/63/84 3343
BROWNFIELD  70/93/63/85 3343
CHILDRESS   73/89/64/84 3343
ASPERMONT   75/95/67/86 2343

.LUB...NONE

ELLIS

TXZ021>044-121900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE DRYLINE THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040-130200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...COCHRAN...CROSBY...FLOYD...
HALE...HOCKLEY...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY...PARMER...SWISHER...
TERRY...AND YOAKUM.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.