Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

SFC LOW HAS BEEN HOLDING OVR WRN/CNTRL KS THRU EVE AND HAS DEEPENED
ABOUT 5 MB IN LAST 12 HRS. 850MB PROFILERS SHOW 50-55KT LLJ FEEDING
MSTR FM TX/OK/AR INTO SRN KS AND EXTRM SRN MO ALG/S OF MULTIPLE
COMPLEXES THAT HAV BEEN ROLLING THRU SRN MO ALL NGT. MODELS HAVE LOW
BEGINNING TO LIFT NEWD INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTN WITH STG SWLY FLOW
AHD OF IT. GUID INCREASES TEMPS INTO LOWER 80S TDA FOR CWA. HWVR
THIS LAST MCS MOVING INTO SW MO SHOULD BLOCK WAA PATTERN FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 4-5 HRS. LOOK FOR PCPN TO LESSEN AS IT MOVES THRU CWA BUT
THE CLDNS/LOW LVL FLOW INTERRUPTION SHUD BE ENUF TO KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY
IN 70S TDA. LOOKS LIKE WRM PUNCH WILL RETURN LATE THIS MRNG AND EARLY
THIS AFTN BRINGING ACTUAL WRM FNT TO STJ-STL LN ABOUT THE TIME THINGS
BEGIN TO FIRE UP. LOOK FOR MOST ACTIVITY THIS AFTN TO BE OVR NRN PTN
CWA ALG/N OF WHEREVER WRM FNT ENDS UP. THEN THINGS GET INTERESTING
FOR TNGT. LOOK FOR STG CONVECTION ALG/AHD OF CDFNT THAT SWEEPS SEWD
ACRS CWA LATE TONIGHT AND ERLY THUR. FF GUIDANCE VALUES NOW EXTREMELY
LOW...1/2 TO 1 INCH OVR MANY COUNTIES.

PER COORD WITH SGF/ILX (THANKS GUYS) THEY ARE INCLUDING ALL THEIR
CWA IN FLOOD WATCHES FOR TDA/TNGT AND WE WILL DO THE SAME.
AMS RECOVERY SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD TODAY AS LLJ KICKS MSTR NWD
QUICKLY INTO AREA. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS IN ALL AREAS TNGT WITH FNT
PASSING THRU. COOLER AND DRYER AIR TMW.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH FOR TDA/TNGT FOR ENTIRE CWA.

PEDIGO