Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
223 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2002

FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSES ON UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS
SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS LAKES REGION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE VORT
MOVING THRU REGION THIS AM WITH A FEW SHOWERS FINALLY DISSIPATING.

UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM MINNESOTA THIS AM TO SOUTHERN LAKES
TODAY THEN PUSHING TO EASTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY. SERIES OF VORTS ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW EACH DAY
BRINGING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HEATING
AND TIMING OF VORTS PUT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL EXTEND CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY...WILL DRY THINGS
OUT MON AND TUES. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND LOW MIDWEEK AND WILL BRING
MENTION OF PRECIP BACK WED AND THURS.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THREAT OF HAIL/WINDS TODAY. FREEZING LEVEL ONLY
AT 8 KFT AND WINDS AT 500MB 40KTS OR SO. CAPE RUNNING 300-600 J/KG.
SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS BUT WOULD EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN BELOW SVR LIMITS.

AS FOR TEMPS GUIDANCE SIMILAR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MAV MUCH WARMER ON SAT. WITH PRECIP MENTIONED WILL GO WITH
COOLER FWC SAT...OTHERWISE WILL STAY CLOSE. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST TUES...TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S BY LATE WEEK.

.CHI...NONE.

CMS

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032>033-039-INZ001>002-010>011-
019-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1200 PM CDT/EST FRI JUN 14 2002

FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.  IN ADDITION SOME SMALL HAIL MAY COVER THE GROUND IN
LOCALIZED AREAS AND TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS.  COLD AIR FUNNELS TYPICALLY FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOCALIZED RAPIDLY RISING AIR CURRENTS.  THEY ARE
TYPICALLY NOT DANGEROUS AS THEY VERY RARELY TOUCH THE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...TODAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY.

MERZLOCK