Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2002

LOW-LVL MOIST RELATIVELY UNSTBL AMS...WK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WLY
FLOW...AND APCH OF THEN WEAKENING OF CDFNT ACRS OH VLY NEXT CPL DAYS
SUGGESTS SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS GOOD PART OF OUR FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND CVRG OF PCPN.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TNGT. CDFNT CURRENTLY FM LP OF MICHIGAN TO
NR STL WL GRADUALLY MOV EWD TNGT AS WK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES NEWD
ALG IT IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF UPR DVRGNC AND LIFT. CURRENT MSAS DATA
SHOWS SFC LI VALUES -4 TO -6 AHD OF BNDRY OVR WRN IN TO SRN IL/SERN
MO...WITH TSTMS DVLPG IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME IN ZONE OF MSTR
CNVRGNC. TSTMS WL INCRS IN CVRG TNGT AND MOV ENEWD. BEST FORCING AND
MOST WIDESPREAD TSTMS SHLD PASS ACRS IL INTO IN...BUT SHLD CLIP
NRN/WRN PART OF FCST AREA LATER TNGT. ELSEWHERE MSTR STREAM ACRS TN
VLY WL CONT TO FLOW ACRS REST OF CNTRL KY TNGT RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS THIS EVNG AND SCT NOCTURNAL SHWRS LATE TNGT.

ON SATURDAY...APCHG CDFNT EXPCTD TO WEAKEN AND STALL NR OH RVR.
SHWRS/TSTMS MAY BE PASSING ACRS MID/UPR OH VLR IN MRNG...WITH AXIS
OF DEEPER MSTR PROGGED TO STALL OVR SRN/ERN PART OF FCST AREA IN
AFTN. THUS...SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AGN EXPCTD IN CNTRL KY BUT WITH WEAKER
FORCING...AREAL CVRG SHLD BE LESS WITH HIGHEST THREAT AREA DIFFICULT
TO DELINEATE AT THIS TIME. ACRS N-CNTRL KY/S-CNTRL IN...DEEPER MSTR
WL EXIT AREA IN MRNG BUT LOW-LVL MSTR WL RMN. MODEL TIME-HT X-SECS
INDICATE THETA-E DCRSG WITH HEIGHT IN LOW-LVLS DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT. THIS CNVCTV INSTBLY COMBINED WITH DIFFUSE LOW-LVL CNVRGNC ALG
WEAKENING SFC BNDRY CLD RESULT IN WDLY SCT AFTN CNVCTN...BUT THIS
SCENERIO IS TOO TENUOUS AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDED MENTION OF PCPN IN
NRN ZONES SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WL BE MONITORED.

MODELS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT ON SOLN FOR NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING UPR-LVL DVRGNC AND FORCING SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW LTL IN WAY OF BACKING FLOW ALOFT SO DEEPER MSTR SHLD RMN
MAINLY ACRS SRN HALF OF FCST AREA...ALG WITH ADDTNL SCT SHRS/TSTMS.
WL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVR S-CNTRL IN SUNDAY AS AREA PROGGED TO BE
UNDER WNWLY FLOW ALOFT JUST N OF UPR CONFLUENCE ZONE. OF COURSE...
ANY LATITUDINAL CHGS WL DICTATE HOW FAR N PCPN GET.

MSTR SHLD FINALLY CLR OUT BY SUNDAY NGT/MONDAY ALLOWING THICKNESS
AND LOW-LVL TEMPS TO RISE. EXPECT AFTN TEMPS ARND OR ABV 80 EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...AMT OF CLD CVR OBVIOUSLY WL
DICTATE AMT OF DIURNAL WRMG. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS TNGT AND PERHAPS
TOMORROW NGT MAY BE A BIT LOO GIVEN TRENDS THIS MRNG AND MODEL PROGS
OF LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACRS AREA.

.SDF...NONE.
FUNK