Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

SHWR AND TSTM BATCH OVER WESTERN KY...MOVING INTO OUR FA...
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP WILL COME
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

AVN AND ETA NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT TO PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF AND
COLD FRONT. AVN IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ETA WITH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH 36 HRS. BOTH MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH H3 JET STREAK
PATTERN FROM SRN INDIANA NORTH INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES FROM 00Z TO
06Z TNGT. RR QUAD DIV PATTERN IN ASSOC WITH THE JET IS HELPING TO
SPIT OUT LOTS OF QPF TNGT ON THE ETA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE
AVN.

FA IS IN SLGT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WILL HIGHLIGHT
IN SPS. MAIN THREAT THIS AFTN AND EVE WILL BE FROM WIND AS SOUTHWEST
LLVL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KTS BY MIDDAY...CURRENT
VWP FROM LVX-88D 30 TO 40 KTS. WOULD EXPECT SOME MIX OF BOW
STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

FOR HIGHS TODAY WILL GO WITH UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVN MOS. WILL ONLY TWEAK POP FCST IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL GO
WITHOUT PRECIP THIS MORN FOR THE ERN PORTION FA AS BELIEVE MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF THERE UNTIL THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP UP POPS
FOR TODAY ACROSS THE NW PORTION TO 70...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO 70
ACROSS THE FA FOR TNGT. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW
ACTIVITY TO CLEAR MOST OF THE FA BY SAT MORNING AND WILL ONLY
INDICATE SCTRD SHWRS FOR THE ERN PORTION FA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
EXTDD AS WELCOME AUTUMN PATTERN SETS IN.

.SDF...NONE.

JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-201630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
830 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY
AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...THEN SPREAD EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM..ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR CABLE OUTLET
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.