Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
135 PM EST FRI MAR 29 2002

SPEED MAX MOVG QUICKLY FM THE MO VLY THRU THE OHIO VLY DURG THE LATE
AFTN AND EVNG...ALNG WITH MOIST A UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ... FAVORABLE
WIND PLUS SHEAR PROFILES...WILL KEEP THREAT OF SVR WEATHER GOING UN-
TIL JUST AFTER DARK.  CDFNT / WND SHFT LINE TO EXIT OUR SRN AND ERN
FA ARND 03Z...ENDING THREAT. MNLY LIKELY POPS UP TO THAT POINT.
SHARP CLEARG FOLLOWING CD FROPA ...SO GOING THAT ROUTE AS WELL.

NRN BRANCH TAKES OVR ON SATURDAY...SO PLAN TO KEEP ALL OF OUR RGN
DRY...WITH MSLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PC IN THE SOUTH.

OLE MEXICO/TEXAS UPR SYS COMES TRUDGING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SAT
NITE AND SUNDAY. CONSIDERING STRENGHT OF NLY BRANCH ACRS THE OHIO
VLY...WE ARE LEANING FOR POPS ONLY IN OUR SRN COUNTIES SAT NITE &
SUNDAY. THIS MAINLY IN MID LVL WAA PTN...AS AVN EVEN KEEPS SUB
LAYERS RATHER DRY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SAT)
DUE TO MORE CLDS -- AND IN THE SOUTH WITH CHC OF PCPN.

QUIET WX SUN NITE AND MONDAY...AS UPR GULF TROF SHIFTS/SHEARS EWD
AND RDG OF HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO AREA.

.SDF...NONE.
STUREY

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-292043-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1005 AM EST FRI MAR 29 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM TELL CITY INDIANA...TO LIBERTY...IN CASEY COUNTY...IN
KENTUCKY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXITS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK INTO MISSOURI...WILL
ADVANCE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL SURGE INTO ALL OF OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. BECAUSE OF INCREASING...AND
TURNING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO
BE ALSO INCREASING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS IS THE AREA COVERED IN THE MODERATE
RISK.

ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY STATEMENT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
COMMERCIAL TELEVISION...OR RADIO...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED AS THIS WEATHER
SITUATION UNFOLDS.

STUREY

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-300000-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1151 AM EST FRI MAR 29 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION IN NORMAL OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW ENOUGH THAT
VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 80 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS FORM OVER A
LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A SERIOUS SITUATION AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL
TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SMALLCOMB