Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

CDFNT CURRENTLY LIES FM NR LAKE ERIE WESTWARD ACRS NRN IN INTO CNTRL
IL. JUST AHD OF THE FNT...TSTMS HV DVLPD FM CNTRL OH TO NR IND TO
JUST E OF STL. MOST NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE OCCRG ON ERN END OF LINE
GIVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND FORCING...BUT EXPECT TSTMS OVR CNTRL
IL TO INCRS IN COVERAGE DURG LATE AFTN AS CONTD HEATING AND WK
LOW-LVL CNVRGNC AND CURRENT SFC-BASED LI VALUES AROUND -7 INITIATE
DVLPMT. ACTIVITY WL SETTLE INTO S-CNTRL IN BY EVNG THEN ACRS CNTRL
KY LATER TNGT. THESE STMS SHLD OUTRUN FRONT GIVEN WEAK NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. THEN MESOETA SUGGESTS A NARROW LINE OF ADDTNL SHWRS/TSTMS
COULD FORM LATER TNGT ALG FNT AND MV TO ARND OH VLY BFR DISSIPATING
BY FRI MRNG. THIS IS PSBL BUT NOT FOR SURE. MEANWHILE...SCT TSTMS WL
CONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG ACRS CNTRL KY IN WEAK SWLY FLOW AHD OF
LWR MS VLY TROF AXIS (SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS). GIVEN PW VALUES FM
1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND RELATIVELY SLOW CELL MVMNT...BRIEF VERY HVY
RAIN WL OCR WITH STGR CELLS...AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN FCST.

FNT SHLD BE NR OR JUST S OF OH RVR BY FRI MRNG. MODELS DIFFER A BIT
ON EXACT LOCATION OF BNDRY WITH TIME...AND BNDRY WL BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS WELL AS UPR LVL RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS ACRS MS
VLY. NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO SUGGEST FNT WL BECOME NEARLY STNRY
SOMEWHERE OVR CNTRL OR S-CNTRL KY. ETA SUGGESTS BNDRY MAY LIE OVR
N-CNTRL KY BUT WL LEAN TWRD A SLIGHTLY FARTHER S POSITION.

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LYRD MSTR WL PUSH S OF FCST AREA BY LATER FRI ASSOCD
WITH MID-LVL TROF/SHEAR AXIS...LOW-LVL MSTR AND INSTBLTY GRADIENT
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN OVR CNTRL KY ALG WEAK SFC BNDRY. AS A
RESULT...AFTN AND EARLY EVNG ISOLD/SCT TSTMS WL REMAIN PSBL FRI THRU
SUN (I.E. HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) ASSUMING ENOUGH LOCALIZED
LOW-LVL MSTR CNVRGNC CAN OCR TO INITIATE DVLPMT. AT THIS TIME...WL
LEAVE MOST OF N-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL KY DRY FRI THRU SUN BUT CANT RULE
OUT ISOLD TSTM ESPCLY LATER IN WEEKEND AS HUMIDITY BUILDS AGN.

IN EXTENDED FCST...NO MAJOR WX SYSTEMS EXPCTD...WITH A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY PTRN AND ISOLD/SCT AFTN/EVNG CNVCTN
PSBL.

GUIDANCE TEMPS APR REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR CHGS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

.SDF...NONE.
FUNK

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-280200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
339 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

SCATTERED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, AND IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
COALESCES, THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

INTENSE RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT FROM STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE FORECAST STORM MOTIONS, TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 TO
30 MPH, ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION WHICH COULD
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORM CELLS. IN
ADDITION, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES ARE FROM 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE, WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS, AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

SMALLCOMB