Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EST FRI MAR 15 2002

A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST IS SHAPING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE
RAINFALL DEFICIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AT 19Z A COLD FRONT STRETCHED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF PADUCAH ACROSS DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHEAST TO EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH READINGS TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DIFFERS. THE
FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
AS THE WEAK LOW MOVE UP FROM ARKANSAS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND A LARGE AREA OF BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CFA.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO COME FROM EITHER MARGINALLY
SEVERE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR HAIL WITH THE ELEVATED
STORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A THIRD EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS MOS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO VARY AFTER 36 HOURS.

.SDF...NONE.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-160500-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST FRI MAR 15 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT ALL OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE RISK AREA IS
GENERALLY WEST OF A SOMERSET...TO LEXINGTON...TO MADISON INDIANA
LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE LOUISVILLE...LEXINGTON...FORT KNOX...BOWLING
GREEN...AND GLASGOW AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF DIMES AND NICKELS. THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK UPDATES.

SMALLCOMB