Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2002

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE S/W  (WHICH MODELS PICK-UP) FM NRN
IND BACK INTO SE MO AT MID AFTN. THAT S/W WILL SETTLE NEAR THE OHIO
RVR LATE THIS AFTN EVNG. BELEIVE IF WE GET ANY SVR...IT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AS TSTMS DVLP IN THE LWR MO VLY...
AND RACE E-NE THRU THE MID OH VLY... OUT AHEAD OF SAID S/W FEATURE.
THIS FAST MVMT IN RESPONSE TO DECENT MID LVL FLOW OF 50 KNOTS PLUS.
HOWEVER... AFT THIS EVNG WNDS DECREASE ALNG WITH SVR THREAT.

OTHERWISE...STG S/W COMING OUT OF CO WILL HELP BACK MEAN FLOW LTR
TNGT. STG ANTICYCLONIC JET (RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN) WILL COME INTO
PLAY TO ENHANCE LFTG ACRS OH VLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50
INCHES OR GREATER IN PLACE...ALNG WITH TRAINING POSSIBILITY. STILL
THINK HVY RAIN A GOOD POSSIBLITY...BUT EXACT LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT
IN QUESTION. SOMEWHAT BACKED FLOW AND WAVE RIDING UP FNT SUGGESTS
HEAVIEST QPF IN AXIS FM S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL KY THRU MONDAY MRNG.
BEST FCST TO KEEP FFA GOING ALL OF RGN TNGT AND MONDAY MRNG.

UPR SYS WILL KEEP CHUGGING RIGHT ALNG MONDAY...SO RAIN WILL END FM
WEST TO EAST...FM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MONDAY NIGHT TUE...SO ONLY A PARTIAL EROSION OF
CLDS. UPR TROF SETTLES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE...WHILE A SPOKE
OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL KEEP OUR
ERN ZONES DRY TUE...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW.

HAVE SIDED WITH A BIT FASTER MOVEMENT OF FNT TNGT...CLOSER TO AVN
AND ETA...CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE UNDER NGM MOS MINS TNGT AND ALSO
COOLER ON MONDAY WITH CLDS/PCPN AND CAA.

ALL GUIDE NUMBERS THEN CONVERGE MON NITE...TUE.

.SDF...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

STUREY

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-130100-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...UNSTABLE, WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MID EVENING. THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...
A RENEWED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THAT TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT
TO FLOODING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

VLD