Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Louisville, KY

May 1, 2002Breckinridge County, Meade County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 1, 2002, 4:52 PM CDT for Breckinridge County, Meade County, Kentucky. It was in force for 43 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 1, 2002, 4:52 PM CDT (21:52 UTC)
Expired: May 1, 2002, 5:35 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Whole counties

Counties Breckinridge County, KY, Meade County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where
May 1, 5:09 PM CDT	Hail 1.75	Payneville, KY
May 1, 5:15 PM CDT	Hail 2	Brandenburg, KY
May 1, 5:27 PM CDT	Hail 2	Irvington, KY

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 1, 3:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 216 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 591 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 124 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLMK 012152
SVRSDF
KYC027-163-012235-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN AND EASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL
   KENTUCKY   
  MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 635 PM EDT(535 PM CDT)

* AT 448 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOOLEYVILLE...OR ABOUT 47
  MILES WEST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANDYVILLE...RHODELIA...WOLF CREEK...UNION STAR AROUND 500 PM CDT
  PAYNEVILLE...SIROCCO...BATTLETOWN...WEBSTER AROUND 505 PM CDT
  BRANDENBURG...GUSTON AROUND 610 PM EDT

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY DAMAGING 
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 

IF YOU ARE IN THIS STORMS PATH...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IN A STURDY 
STRUCTURE UNTIL IT HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND ANY DOWNED 
POWER LINES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE NOTICE.

$$
FUNK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 1, 2:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 1, 2:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE WARM FRONT HAD SHIFTED NORTH OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA (CFA)
AT 1830Z. MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE
STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CFA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CFA WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR STORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SLOW AS
IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW
DEGREES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL EXIT THE SOUTHWEST FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
THE CFA AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
PRESENTLY WE EXPECT ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
LOUISVILLE BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.

.SDF...NONE.

JA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 1, 2:28 PM CDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020800-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS AN
AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEXINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.
...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

Special weather statement, May 1, 3:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020800-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS AN
AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEXINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.
...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

Local storm report, May 1, 4:25 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
525 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    IRELAND                   IN   .75 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   DUBOIS                         REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER

Local storm report, May 1, 4:47 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
547 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    BIRDSEYE                  IN   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   DUBOIS                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0544 PM    DOOLITTLE MILLS           IN   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   PERRY                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

PKW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 5:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin	44 min
May 1, 5:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt	49 min
May 1, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Larue, Nelson	45 min
May 1, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Marion, Washington	43 min
May 1, 6:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Marion	32 min
May 1, 6:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Casey	42 min
May 1, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Mercer	30 min
May 1, 6:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard, Lincoln	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.