Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Elko, NV

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2002

IMPRESSIVE LITTLE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL SIERRA ATTM...AND
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS HIGHWAY 50 TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WAS
INITIALLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS
BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS FROM NRN NYE CTY NNWWD TO HUMBOLDT CTY. NOT SURPRISINGLY
GIVEN THE SMALL CIRCULATION PRESENT AND RECENT TRENDS...MODELS STILL
NOT IN THE GREATEST AGREEMENT...NOR DO THEY HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
DYNAMICS MOVE EAST. VERY IMPRESSIVE CONV-DIV COUPLET CONTINUES TO
SHOW UP...WITH A SMALL COLD POOL AT H5 WHICH META DEPICTS BEST. DUE
TO COLD POOL...EXPECT TS TO CONTINUE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS NEAR THE
COLD POOL OVER EAST CNTRL WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. AS FOR
POPS...WILL GO LIKELY/NMRS EASTERN 2/3 OF AREA AND SCT MORNING IN
HUMBOLDT. AVN ALSO HINTS AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS ELKO CTY...AND GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS
APPEARS POSSIBLE. WILL NOT TRY TO TIME HERE DUE TO THIS...BUT END
THINGS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NR HWY 50 AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF WAVE BEGINS TO SQUASH THINGS. TOTAL QPF WILL STILL BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH...BUT ISOLD HALF INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS FOR
TEMPS...FWC WAY TOO WARM...AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV TEMPS
DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE AND WILL ONLY HAVE TOKEN 10S IN
THE FAR NE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY MORE WRAPAROUND. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT S/W SO WILL WARM
TEMPS UP QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. TUESDAY...WAVE WILL ONLY BE A BRUSH BY WITH
MAINLY MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME LLVL MOISTURE ACCORDING TO
MODELS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS SO CURRENT 10S NR THE NRN
BORDER ARE OK. TUES NIGHT AND WED...COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL KEEP TEMPS NR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER AS EAST PAC RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT.

EXTENDED...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE OF LATE...BUT SEEM TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE TO A WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. AVN/MRF ODD MAN OUT SHOWING LOWER HGTS...BUT STILL DRY
FOR FRI. A COUPLE MODELS HINTING AT MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM TS ISELLE. AGREE WITH VEGAS HERE THAT PROGGED
ORIENTATION OF RIDGE MAKE THIS VERY UNLIKELY. WILL CONTINUE GOING
EXTENDED OF CLIMO FCST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...PRIMARILY WRT TEMPS.
WALLMANN

.EKO...NONE.