Special Marine Warning 13, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
215 AM CST TUE MAR 12 2002

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1010MB ELONGATED LOW OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA TO EAST TEXAS WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
NORTHEAST TO MEMPHIS AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS. LIX SOUNDING OF 00Z
TUESDAY REVEALED A VERY MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TO STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 5H ANALYSIS INDICATED MINUS 20 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
WEST IN THE SAME THE VICINITY OF THE SHORT WAVE. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...THE COLD CORE IS REMOVE FROM THE MOISTURE BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE AS THE SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH THE COLD CORE BECOME CLOSE IN
PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THE STEEPING LAPSE RATE WILL CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 950 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 3 BY 18Z TUE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROP OFF TO EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH BY 18Z TUE. THIS SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCE IS SHOWING UP IN THE AVN...ETA AND NGM. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST FOLLOWING INTERSTATE 20 TO
ATLANTA BY TUES NIGHT. FROPA EXPECTED AT BTR AND MCB BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...MSY BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z AND GPT BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z WED. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND MOVE EAST.
BY LATE THU...AN OPTIMUM PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOR SEA FOG...WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW
OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE OVER
THE COOL NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES AND CREATE FOG.
WILL KEEP WORDING OF FOG. THE MAIN TROUGH OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO
KICK EAST NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY
WITH FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST MONDAY. CANT ARGUE WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WORDING ALTHOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO PONDER...

MCB 64/46/74/48 8000    BTR 65/49/74/51 8000
MSY 70/53/72/53 7000    GPT 68/49/71/51 7100

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

18

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
815 AM CST TUE MAR 12 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 AM    4 SW SLIDELL              LA   78 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
03/12/02   ST. TAMMANY                    MEASURED BY ONBOARD WIND
                                          EQUIPMENT ON A VESSEL
                                          MOORED IN THE BAYOU LIBERTY
                                          MARINA. SOME TIN ROOFS
                                          PEELED BACK FROM SLIP
                                          COVERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
                                          DAMAGE. APPARENT DOWNBURST
                                          BASED ON KLIX RADAR.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC RELAYED
                                          BY MEDIA.

RJR