Special Marine Warning 113, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
230 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

A GOOD BIT OF CHANGE PROBABLE FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRST CONCERN CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND THE HEAT ADVISORY. WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH PRESENT THINKING NOW IS
THAT THIS MAY BE THE LAST ONE REGARDING THIS HEAT EPISODE GIVEN THE
FACT THE FORECAST IS GOING TO CHANGE SOME.

THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN NOW CENTERS AROUND SOME HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH MAY HELP
SUPPRESS SOME OF THE EXTREME HEAT THE AREA HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TOO.
THE NWP MODELS THIS MORNING STILL HOLD THE EASTERN TROF IN PLACE
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR AND IR SAT TRENDS THOUGH SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL
POCKETS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE EXTREME EASTERN HALF OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ARE NOW MAKING IT CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG
SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND SUPPORTS THIS THEORY. CURRENT THINKING NOW BASED
ON NEW GUIDANCE FROM THE AVN AND OTHER MODELS IS THAT EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL POCKETS OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROF CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WOULD THEN BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCB TO ASD TO GPT.
THE AVN DOES NOT MOVE THE UPPER HIGH AND EASTERN TROF VERY MUCH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCT CAT
SHOULD CONTINUE. FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS AS WELL
WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINNING LATER TODAY.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE AVN IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AIDED BY THE EASTERN TROF THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
MID WEEK. THIS REMAINS SUBJECT THOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS
ALTHOUGH WILL GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE AVN AND KEEP THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCT RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF THE
FRONT IS ABLE TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF NEXT WEEK...DRIER AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL/S PASSAGE WOULD SUGGEST SOME
DRYING AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 94/74/94/73 4342  BTR 94/75/94/74 3231
MSY 94/77/93/76 3231  GPT 93/75/92/74 4342

.NEW...NONE
LA...HEAT ADVISORY LAZ058>070.
MS...NONE.

09

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>