Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL STEER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR TODAY...BUT WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN SOME AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GOES-8 SOUNDER DPI PW/S REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE IN
SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS WHERE A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING. FARTHER UPSTREAM...PW/S FALL OFF
INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF AL AND MOST OF
GA. THE MODELS ALL SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY...AND INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF A MID/UPPER LOW AND TROUGH NOW OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
MODELS DIVERGE MORE THAN EARLIER WITH REGARDS TO ANY SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL TREAT THIS SYSTEM LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
MEANS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IF A SURFACE LOW DID FORM...THE MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ETA
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF MAKES MORE SENSE THAN THE NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
OF THE AVN. WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES AND POPS CLOSE TO NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MCB 72/94/71/93 2212   BTR 73/95/73/94 2212
MSY 76/93/76/92 2213   GPT 73/92/73/91 2213

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-030000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE SITUATION CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ACTIONS...NONE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).