Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

RADAR IS GETTING BUSY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED STRONG TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTH MS NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH...AND OVER AREAS FROM NEAR MORGAN CITY TO THIBODAUX...ALONG
THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LAKE BREEZE. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE WITH A /REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/ PERIOD IF CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
AREAS...HEAT HAS BECOME A PROBLEM WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...
AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND WEAKER PVA SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MORE
ISOLATED THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
THE LOWER 90S...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD GET STARTED A LITTLE
EARLIER. WILL BE MONITORING ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON
WEATHER ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS IT WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN OR SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE EASTERLIES OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER LAND AND
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SAG SOUTH NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MS ZONES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S.

MCB 73/92/72/91/73 24242   BTR 73/91/73/90/73 24242
MSY 76/91/75/90/76 14242   GPT 74/89/73/89/74 14242

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-080100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1115 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...DUE TO EFFECT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
IN THE LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE...AND DRY AND COOLER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE HAZARDS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SQUALLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN TORRENTIAL RAIN. WATERSPOUTS
MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HOT TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
DEGREES INLAND FROM THE COAST. COASTAL SECTIONS CAN EXPECT HEAT
INDICES FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).