Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
200 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2002

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND
ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH INLAND. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
RECEDE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
MOIST AIR TO SPREAD INLAND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER
HARD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE AVN INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS
THE AREA. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME FOR
GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THUS HAVE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER JET MOVES
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ETA INDICATES THAT THE AREA WILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT REAR OF THE JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AVN INDICATES THAT THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
FRONT OF THE JET FOR A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO SOUTH TEXAS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL MAKE ONLY SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. POPS APPEAR TOO HIGH OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL ADJUST POPS
DOWN.

MCB 33/45/21/48 3100
BTR 36/45/24/48 4100
MSY 39/46/30/48 5100
GPT 41/47/27/46 5100

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADZY...CSTL WTRS KPQL TO ATCHAFALAYA RVR OUT 60
       NM AND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

23

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1045 AM CST SAT MAR 2 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO
NEW ORLEANS TO PASCAGOULA.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 50 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE INCH OR LESS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM
INTO THE GULF AND FOR THE TIDAL LAKES OF PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.

.RECORD COLD...
VERY COLD AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

.ACTIONS...
SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY HAVE TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER...WINTER WEATHER PRECAUTIONS MAY
HAVE TO BE ENACTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS FOR PROLONGED
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).