Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
145 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2002

MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHUNTING A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST IN 500MB FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
MEXICO TO GULF COASTA LAREAS. HURRICANE KENNA IS HELPING BY
PROVIDING SOURCE OF ABOUNTANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. HURRICAE KENNA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY.
UNTIL THEN LA AND MS WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THIS TROPICAL PUMP.
 QPF PROGS LOOK DECENT BUT TOO FAR EAST FOR TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF
ON A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA STRETCHED OUT OVER 48 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDAY HAS MOVED NORTH AND UNLAND OVER SOUTH LA AND
SOUTH MS AND WILL MOVE NORTH TO VICINITY KMCB SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL
OSCILLATE UNTIL A WEAK WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS SUNDAY AND
SHIFTS IT NORTHEAST WITH WEAK FRONT DRAGGINED SOUTH TO THE COAST
AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT MAJOR SORH WAVE WILL PULLOUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUT THE CWA WEDNESDAY.

LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEKEND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  ONLY RAY OF HOPE IS THAT THEIR WILL BE PERIOD (6-12 HOURS) OF
DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

MCB 64/73/65/77 9+86   BTR 66/75/66/79 8+76
MSY 71/77/70/80 8874   GPT 68/77/70/79 8764

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
TERREBONE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-260330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2002

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER DISTURBANCES...COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM JUST EAST OF MORGAN CITY...TO DONALDSONVILLE...TO
HAMMOND...TO TYLERTOWN INCLUDING THE BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN AREA
AND MCCOMB. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. INITIAL
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED.

FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...EAST OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY...TO
DONALDSONVILLE...TO HAMMOND...TO TYLERTOWN...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND BILOXI-GULFPORT...AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).