Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED OVER SOUTHEAST MS
AND SOUTHWEST AL WHERE MSAS DATA SHOWS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MCS
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WHERE
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED. IN
THE SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE MS COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
BOTH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND ARE A DEVELOPING/
EXPANDING UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A DIGGING TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LONG
ADVERTISED WEAK COLD FRONT...MAINLY A DRY FRONT...SHOULD MOVE INTO
EXTREME SOUTH MS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...DRIFT SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MS COAST BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST
OR IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER WET MICROBURST SITUATION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WELL SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS SHOULD
BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

PRELIM TEMPS AND POPS...

MCB 72/93/69/91 2100  BTR 74/93/72/92 2200
MSY 76/93/76/92 3311  GPT 74/92/71/91 4310

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0310 PM    BILOXI                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/25/02   HARRISON                       ONE POWER LINE REPORTED
                                          DOWN NEAR I-110 AND HOPKINS
                                          BLVD. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0340 PM    5 S BILOXI                MS   WATERSPOUT
08/25/02   HARRISON                       WATERSPOUT REPORTED NEAR
                                          SHIP ISLAND. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT.

0415 PM    10 S BILOXI               MS   MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND
08/25/02   HARRISON                       BUOY 42007 REPORTED A WIND
                                          GUST OF 41 KNOTS.

GMZ530-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM..MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND INTO THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSET OF THE EVENING HOURS.

.MARINE HAZARDS...
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THOUGH THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY HIGH WAVES...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

.ACTIONS...NONE AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE)