Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
310 PM CST JAN 5 2002

LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATED A DOUBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWEST LA COAST. INITIAL MESOSCALE LOW WASNEAR
PATTERNON JUST EAST OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY AND THE SECOND LOW ABOUT 50
NM SOUTH OF CAMERON LA AT MID-AFTN. AS INITIAL VORT LOBE SWINGS NEWD
ACROSS SE LA LATE THIS AFTN THE INITIAL LOW WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
WHILE THE SECOND LOW OFF THE SW LA COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE
AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SE LA BY EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUES ENE ACROSS SE MS TONIGHT. MAIN H5 TROF WILL SWING ENE
ACROSS S TX BY EVENING. PER LATEST RUC MODEL SURFACE LOW SHOULD
TRACK JUST N OF HAMMOND-SLIDELL AREA EARLY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NWD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW.
HOWEVER THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE SE LA
COAST-MS COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE COAST COULD
BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER IN
GENERAL A WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SWEEP NEWD
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER MP TYPE COLD FRONT SHOULD
RACE EWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST CONTINUING WIND ADVISORY
IN SAME AREA AS PREVIOUS ZONE FCST PACKAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ANOTHER
S/W TROF DROPPING SWD SUN NIGHT INTO MON SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING WITH MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT DOWN INTO THE FREEZING RANGE MOST
INLAND AREAS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW BY SUN NIGHT. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS EWD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPS
SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. IN SUMMARY GOING
ALONG WITH THE AVN MODEL AS SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT FASTER.

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVZY...TIDAL LAKES OF PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
       GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS FROM KPQL-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ056>068-040-069-070-
MS...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ080>082

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CST SAT JAN 5 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING WILL BE MOVING EASTNORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL SECTIONS.  WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR HIGHER AND HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AS WELL AS LAKES PONTCHARTAIN AND MAUREPAS.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

.WIND ADVISORY...
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.ACTIONS...
LOW LYING STREETS AND UNDERPASSES MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT FROM PERIODIC MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVATION OF SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS IF ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).