Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
234 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

EARLY THIS MORNING...QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT RATHER
MUGGY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
ONLY 1 OR 2 DEGREES. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLOWING IN...SEEING
MORE CLOUDINESS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. ELSEWHERE...NOT SO
QUIET. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG INCOMING
COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. MCS IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WHILE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HOPEFUL TO RECEIVE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS FOR
OUR AREA OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING LOW LEVELS NOW WELL SATURATED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.52 INCHES...UP 0.45 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ETA FORECAST INDICATING A CONTINUED RISE MAXING AT
ABOUT 1.75 INCHES PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST SOUNDING SHOWING WHAT HAS EVOLVED INTO A
SEMI-PERMANENT CAP HAS FINALLY ERODED.

COLD FRONT SIMILARLY PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FCST AREA
JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER RUNS. WILL NOW
PLACE ALONG AN AEX TO LUFKIN LINE AT ABOUT 04Z...INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AT 09Z. WILL CAP GONE...INCREASINGLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN ALONG WITH  PRE-FRONTAL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
REGION...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR TODAY. WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
WHICH SHOULD OVERCOME DECREASING NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY.

ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY DRIES WITH FROPA. WILL CARRY ONLY MINIMAL POPS
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SHOWERS...AND THESE ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. UNFORTUNATELY WE RETURN TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MIDWEST. COLD SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTING OVER REGION WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

.LCH...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AEX 85/60/76/52/76/49  560000
BPT 85/69/79/58/77/55  562000
LCH 85/68/78/57/77/55  562000
LFT 87/69/78/58/77/55  562000

MARCOTTE

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-171500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...RAINS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...

MUCH NEEDED RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT ON THE 8TH OF APRIL...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED LESS THAN
ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE YEAR HAS RESULTED IN MILD TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

AN AVERAGE OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT AS IS THE CASE
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE
AND OTHERS LESS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.

RAINS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES,LA
436 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0433 AM    SEA RIM STATE PARK        TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/02   JEFFERSON                      POWERLINES DOWN AT SEA RIM
                                          STATE PARK. BUILDINGS
                                          RATTLED ACCORDING TO
                                          PERSONNEL. NO ELECTRICITY.

FN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES,LA
438 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0433 AM    SEA RIM STATE PARK        TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/02   JEFFERSON                      POWERLINES DOWN AT SEA RIM
                                          STATE PARK. BUILDINGS
                                          RATTLED ACCORDING TO
                                          PERSONNEL. NO ELECTRICITY.

FN