Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
150 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN MS COOLED PARTS OF RAPIDES AND
AVOYELLES TO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS SETTING OFF TSRA
OVER C LA AT THE MOMENT. TEMPS AT 1 PM ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE MID
90S. BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY IS UNDERSTANDABLE WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONT AND REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SOME
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA WILL BE SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS
AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WILL RE-ISSUE THIS MORNINGS SPS TO
LAST INTO THE EVENING FOR SVR WX THREAT.

THIS FRONT WILL INCH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND THU BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE E TX LAKES REGION TO C LA.  THE COMBINATION OF
THE MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY...AND THE STALLING FRONT
WILL ENHANCE OUR POPS TONIGHT AND THU. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE
AMPLE VVS AND MRHS 70-80% RANGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS EVENINGS
TSRA WILL LIKELY LAST FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. AFTER THE TSRA
DISSIPATES...LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S (UPPER 70S
SOUTH) WILL BE THE RULE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND TSRA WILL START A LOT EARLIER TOMORROW.
WITH THIS...TEMPS WILL ONLY HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
AREAWIDE BEFORE THE CONVECTION STARTS FIRING UP BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING.

FRI WILL SEE A WEAKENING AND RETREAT IN THE MID/UPPER TROF...TO BE
REPLACED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM THE WEST. THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE MOVING N AND DISSIPATING BY THIS TIME ALSO. THIS...
COMBINED WITH THE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUT A CAP ON THE
WIDESPREAD TSRA OF THU TO ONLY ABOUT A 30% COVERAGE. SAT AND SUN...
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE N GULF..WITH ONLY 20% COVERAGE EXPECTED.
BY MON THROUGH WED...THE HIGH WILL MOVE A BIT EAST...RETURNING A SE
FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...TO GIVE
THE USUAL 30% COVERAGE.

DML

.LCH...OZONE ACTION DAY FOR SE TX...TXZ201-215-216

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AEX 73/92/75/95/75/97/75 4653222
BPT 77/91/77/93/77/94/76 4653222
LCH 77/91/77/93/76/94/76 4653222
LFT 76/91/76/93/76/95/76 4653222

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
250300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S...COMBINING WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH...WILL SET THE STAGE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME OF THESE STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...CAUSING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.