Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2002

CHALLENGES...HOW HARD TO HIT POPS AND HOW MUCH QPF.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW OVER NW TN WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NE TO JUST N OF LEX TO JUST N OF HTS AND
THEN TO THE OFF THE NE ENGLAND COAST. COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
SFC LOW TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGHS PWS OVER THE REGION (AROUND 1.6)...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS S
OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY S OF THE DANIEL BOONE PARKWAY NEAR TN
LINE. AS THE FRONT CROSSES AND UPPER SW/V APPROACHES THE FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY GET A BOOT TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR TO FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE. SOUTHERN MCS ALONG THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE ROBBING
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THIS EVENING...FEEL THAT IT IS PRUDENT TO KEEP FLOOD
WATCH GOING THOUGH DONT FEEL ANY PROBLEMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL
BE THAT WIDESPREAD. ONE INTERESTING CELL JUST TO SW OF CWA LOOKS TO
BE MOST INTERESTING THING OUT THERE NOW.  WITH SOME AREAS S OF FRONT
SEEING SOME SOLAR HEATING TODAY AND MODERATE SHEAR PROFILE A COUPLE
OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVER THE S GIVEN OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY N OF KY/TN LINE. EVERYONE SHOULD MEASURE SO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN ORDER TONIGHT.  SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN AND SOMEWHAT UPSLOPE FLOW WITH ANY SOLAR
HEATING WILL KEEP SC/CU AROUND AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH DEEP TROUGHS SETTING UP ON BOTH COASTS AND RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THEN BUILDING E INTO THE PLAINS...COOL WEATHER TO MOVE
IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO DROP
INTO TROUGH ON NW FLOW AND THEY SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
DIURNAL CU AROUND. ONE STRONGER VORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH.

EXTENDED...MODERATING TREND TO SET UP. AS UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS EAST
AND RIDGING SETS UP ALONG EAST COAST.  TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TO END THE PERIOD.  TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT
WENT A CAT ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THU AND FRI.

THANKS SURROUNDING NDFD OFFICES FOR COORDINATION.

.JKL...FFA FOR MOST OF BERN KY THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

PELTON

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-180000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILES
INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE DANIEL BOONE
PARKWAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE...LARGE INSTABILITY AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. FOR THIS REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/JKL.

GREIF