Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

GOOD MOISTURE ON SAT AND SFC CHART WITH A SH WV INDICATED ON 50H
TRIGGERING SH/TS ACROSS CWFA. DRY SLOT ON W/VP SHOULD ALLOW US TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BUT WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL DROP QUICKLY UNTIL DWPT REACHED AND THEN STABILIZE.
WILL GO AT OF NEAR DWPTS FOR LOWS. INITIAL CLEAR SKIES THU WILL HELP
TEMPS CLIMB QUICKLY UNTIL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FILL IN AND INCREASED
POPS FOR THE WARM SECTOR.

MODELS STARTING TO AGREE THAT SLOWER IS BETTER. STILL PREFER THE ETA
AS THE SLOWER MODEL BUT THERE IS A TWIST TO THE PICTURE. NOW
INDICATIONS THAT THE INITIAL FNT FOR FRI WILL STALL OUT BEFORE
CROSSING THE MTNS. A FOLLOWING FNT LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
DECENT POPS IN THE FCST FOR LATE THU THRU LATE SAT. THEN FINALLY
CLEARING FOR THE EXTENDED. COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH A
MINOR SW TUE BUT WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW.

.JKL...NONE.

DUSTY

PREV FCST DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
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1125 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

NO UPDATE PLANNED.

OUDEMAN
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220 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

SHORT TERM FCST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO STEM AROUND POPS AND SKY COVER.
MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDONE WITH BOTH...AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT.
LONGER TERM PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE 1ST
FRONT MAY LOOSE A LOT OF STEAM AND IT MAKE TAKE THE SECONDARY FRONT
TO PUSH IT ALL THRU THE AREA ON SAT.

SFC CHART EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA (AND KY) FROM SE-NW. 8H
FRONT ALSO LOCATED IN A SIMILAR FASHION. ONE COULD ALSO ARGUE FOR A
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS S OHIO. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS IT HAS LIFTED NE FROM TN AND HAS NOW MOVED ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS NOTED OVER TN AND S
CNTRL KY BUT THEY ARE WEAKENING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...GUIDANCE IS GIVING ME LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND I JUST DONT SEE IT. MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
IS DECENT ENUFF HOWEVER TO CARRY CHC POPS. LAPSE RATES LOOK DECENT
BUT NOT ALARMING. META SHOWS A WEAK VORT MOVING ACROSS THE N 1/2 OF
THE AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER ONE THIS EVENING. OTHER
THAN THAT I DONT SEE MUCH LIFT OR FORCING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY
DUE TO SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW IM THINKING OF PC SKIES AND 30 POPS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

LOWERED POPS TO 20 TONIGHT IN THE DATABASE...SAME REASONING AS
ABOVE...JUST DONT SEE A LOT TO TRIGGER PCPN OTHER THAN THE WEAK VORT
IN THE EVENING. THU IS STILL A PROBLEM WITH MODELS GOING LIKELY POPS
AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. WILL STICK WITH WHAT IS IN THE DATABASE NOW...PC
SKIES ON THU WITH A 40 POP. MODELS DO INDICATE A LITTLE BETTER LIFT
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY BUT SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WED WITH DECENT SW FLOW.

ETA CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE AVN WITH THE FRONT FRI
NIGHT/SAT...BUT BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER. DECIDED TO
STICK WITH 40 POPS ON FRIDAY DAY JUST IN CASE THE AVN IS RIGHT...BUT
INCREASED THE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO 50 IN THE DATABASE. SOMEWHAT OF A
TUFF CALL ON HOW TO HANDLE SATURDAY...IF THE ETA IS RIGHT IT WILL BE
WET. WILL LEAVE CHC POPS IN THE ZONES AND REMOVE EARLY WORDING DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON FROPA.

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE SUN-TUE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

MOS...TEMPS LOOK CLOSE BUT POPS ARE OVERDONE. PLAN ON CUTTING BACK
ACCORDINGLY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE 6 HOURLY POPS SEEM A LOT MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE 12 HOURLYS.

GFE/IFPS...DATABASE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
AND SMOOTHING HERE AND THERE. ADJUSTED A FEW 1 HR POPS. OTHER
CHANGES AS NOTED ABOVE. ISC GRIDS SENT...DIDNT ADD ANY NEW MODEL
DATA.

WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER SDFOZFJKL. FURTHER COORDINATION
WELCOME.

HALL
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940 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR SDF DOWN INTO CENTRAL KY JUST W OF JKLS CWA DOWN
TO JUST W OF CSV. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON ISENTROPIC LIFT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED INTO THE
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR THEM HAS BEEN
SHEARED.  HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT SEEM
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AND EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO.
CURRENT 40 POPS OVER THE SW AND 30 OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
HANDLE THIS FAIRLY WELL.

FOG MAY BE A CONCERN LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALLOWS FOR CLEARING LATE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT. 12Z FWC GUIDANCE
HITS FOG PRETTY HARD LATE AT LOZ. FOR NOW...WILL ADD PATCHY FOG
WORDING OVER THE SW ZONES AND END PRECIP THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

PELTON
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