Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

HANNAH AND HER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MORE IN EASTERN TN
AND WESTERN VA. HAVE POPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CARRYING
60 IN THE SOUTHEAST AND 50 ELSEWHERE FOR THIS EVENING. GOING WITH 60
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW...WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN. MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE A NICE DAY...HOWEVER TUESDAY IS IN QUESTION AS ETA AND AVN HAS
SOME MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE TOMORROW.
COUNTING ON THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND HANNAH.

EXTENDED...THE ETA AND AVN HAVE A TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN THE TX-AR
BORDER...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL NOT PUT GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INTRODUCE A SILENT 20.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AFFECTING US TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. TIMING...INTENSITY...AND
POSITION IN QUESTION HOWEVER. LONG RANGE AVN HAD MAJOR CHANGES FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THU AND
FRI...WITH SAT CLEARING OUT AND COOLING DOWN.

.JKL...NONE.

GEOGERIAN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
---------------------------------------------------------------------

1020 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

88D HAS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER OUR CNTRL CWA MOVING NE.
COPIOUS MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM HANNA SHOULD KEEP CHC OF PCPN
IN FCST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MAY BE LULL PDS BUT BREAKS WILL ALLOW
HEATING TO HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. CURRENT FCST COVERS
THIS WELL AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...
TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AND LOWER 80S SHOULD STAND
ALTHOUGH I WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO LOWER VALUES LATER.

DUSTY
---------------------------------------------------------------------
445 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.  SAT AND WATER
VAPOR LOOPS INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION.

POSITIVE TILTED SHEARING TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MS VALLEY TODAY
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF IT IN OUR AREA IN RESPONSE.  BY
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL SHEAR EVEN MORE.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY GIVING A 90 POP FOR TODAY...BUT THIS IS A BIT
OPTIMISTIC FOR RAIN AS MOST OF OUR RAIN WILL COME FROM MAINLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION INFLUENCES.  I AM LOWERING TO 60 TO 70 POP ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH BETTER HOPES OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST...NEARER
HANNAH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SLOW HANNAH DOWN.  MODELS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DO EXPECT TO
SEE SOME ACCELERATION OF HANNAH IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT SEE THE FULL BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL FROM HANNAH...HAVING THIS SYSTEM AROUND SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND UNDER A SKY THAT I SUSPECT WILL NOT BE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY.  THEREFORE I WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE TEMPS ON
SUNDAY COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE OF UPPER 70S.  I WILL GO WITH MID
80S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  THINKING IS TO HAVE
SAME OR A BIT LOWER POPS FOR SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE
TROUGH WEEKENS AND HANNAH MOVES NORTHEAST AND LOSES ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE CWA AS SHE MOVES FARTHER AWAY.  BY MONDAY MORNING...WE WILL
BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND I SUSPECT THAT CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL SHARPLY DWINDLE BY THEN.

SO IN SHORT...GOING UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY AND CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST FOUR PERIODS.  GOING CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHERE I WILL RAISE TEMPS A
FEW CATEGORIES.

HEINLEIN

-------------------------------------------------------------------
946 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002

AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING.  ALSO CAN SEE SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.  GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION.  FAIRLY THICK CLOUD
DECK SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP FOR TONIGHT.  LOOKING AT THE MSAS WIND
FIELDS...DOWNSLOPING WINDS EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY.  THIS MAY END UP KEEPING THINGS DRY A BIT LONGER.  CURRENT
ZONES LOOK GOOD AND HAVE EVERYTHING IN CHECK.  WILL SEND OUT A QUICK
COSMETIC UPDATE TO REMOVE LATE EVENING ON WORDING.  ALSO WILL NEED
TO ADJUST GRIDS SLIGHTLY.

ZONE UPDATE AND NEW GRIDS/RDF COMING SHORTLY.

JARVIS
---------------------------------------------------------------------