Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2002

SINKING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPROUTING
CONVECTION.  DEWPOINT MAX FROM KSME TO HTS...AROUND 74.  MSAS LI/S
SHOW SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA...WITH MORE STABLE VALUES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIP...MID
SECTION SLIGHT CHANCE...AND SOUTHERN SECTION CHC.  THE FEW CU OUT
THERE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN.  META HAS...BY 12Z SAT...55 DEWPOINTS ENCROACHING
ON OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  ETA MOS A CAT COOLER THAN NGM/AVN FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS.  FOR TONIGHT...RANGE FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT AND IF WE FOG UP.  OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS MIGHT BE
SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS...UPPER 80S WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND
SUNNY SKIES.  MOISTURE DOESNT TAKE LONG TO RETURN...STARTING UP
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES ON TUES...KEEPING THEM THROUGH THU.  FRONT
STILL SLOWING DOWN IN MODELS.  TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH RIDGE
RETROGRADING.

.JKL...NONE.
OUDEMAN

-----------------------------------------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2002

ETA/NGM TRENDING STRONGER WITH UPPER HIGH OVER MS VALLEY. NGM DEEPER
WITH UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA. AVN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.  ETA/NGM
TRENDING HIGHER WITH SURFACE PRESSUREOVER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
ETA.

LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH MIGHT MAKE IT
AT LEAST PARTLY THROUGH CWA TODAY AND PROVIDE A BIT DRIER AIR FOR AT
LEAST NORTHERN COUNTIES BY TONIGHT.  UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON
PLUS UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAIRLY HIGH PW WILL AGAIN PROVIDE
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON TSRA WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKING
SOUTHWARD.  WILL NOT DIVERGE A WHOLE LOT FROM GUIDANCE.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2002

LATEST REG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM MA TO N IL FROM LOW OFF OF NE COAST. THIS FRONT IS MAKING
SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SFC TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN OH.
RECENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE.
SMALL CELL RECENTLY POPPED UP AND DISSIPATED JUST W OF CWA OVER
CLARK CO KY. OVERALL...MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

INCLINATION WOULD BE TO LOWER POPS TO 20 OR TAKE THEM OUT
ALTOGETHER. MODELS TRY TO TAKE A WEAK VORT INTO CENTRAL KY
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LIMITED. SOME HINT ON WV IMAGERY OF WEAK VORT OVER
S OH AND SFC TROUGH OVER S OH IS PROBABLY A SFC REFLECTION OF THIS.
NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. TYPICAL EAST KY FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...BUT SETUP IS NOT
IDEAL FOR DENSE FOG. TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN
UPDATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO CUT OR REMOVE POPS.

.JKL...NONE.

PELTON