Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Jackson, KY

Issued

Jul 2, 2002, 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC)

Expired

Jul 2, 2002, 7:15 PM EDT

In force

36 min

Issued by

NWS Jackson, KY

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pike County, KY

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

225 
WUUS53 KJKL 022239
SVRJKL
KYC195-022315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  PIKE COUNTY

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 638 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH
  OF DORTON...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DORTON AND RURAL EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY AROUND 645 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH...WHICH COULD BLOW DOWN TREES AND BREAK OFF LARGE LIMBS.

IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE JACKSON WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3741 8217 3727 8237 3721 8255 3730 8266
          3757 8236
PELTON

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 4:35 PM EDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF STORMS TODAY. A FEW OF THEM HAVE PULSED
SEVERE YIELDING LARGE HAIL. WILL EXPECT A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
THE CONVECTION DYING OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEAK FLOW AND LITTLE
FORCING FOR PRECIP SEEN TOMORROW...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREAT
ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AGAIN. SAME ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/POSITION AMONG THE MODELS FOR THIS
FRONT. THE ETA IS SLOWER AND TH AVN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
ETA INITIALIZED THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE TOO STRONG TODAY AND HOLDS
ONTO IT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE AVN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN...BUT
EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT IS NOT HIGH.

BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST
AND KEEP IT DRY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
HIGH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AND ALSO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE RETURN ON
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE NEXT COLD FRONT POSES A CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY.
THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AVN LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH AN EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ENSEMBLE DOES STILL SUPPORT A WEAKER
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WILL USE A COMPROMISE OF MAV AND FWC IN THE NEAR TERM.

.JKL...NONE.

HAL

In the hours before

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SMALL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS OVER MUCH OF
KENTUCKY. THESE ARE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT ALSO ARE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

GREIF

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.