Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

---FORECAST ISSUES---

RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) AND NEXT
RAIN CHANCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

---MODELS/ZFP---

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN.
CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON AROUND US.  BETTER
INSTABILITY UP TO OUR NORTHWEST HELPING CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.  LITTLE BIT MORE CAPPING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...SOME AREAS MAY
BREAK OUT AND CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE CWA.  NEW RUC MODEL
PICKING UP ON THIS CONVECTION PRETTY WELL.  FOR THAT REASON...PLAN
ON RUNNING AN EVENING PERIOD TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY LOOK GOOD WITH PATCHY FOG.
MAV/FWC/MET NUMBERS ARE ALL CLOSE TO EACH OTHER...AND PLAN ON GOING
WITH LOWS AROUND 70 TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES TOWARDS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.  RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  STORMS WILL HAVE ALOT GOING
FOR THEM AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  CAPES
RUNNING AROUND 2500 J/KG...HIGH PWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST MULTICELL CONVECTION LIKELY...HOWEVER CAN
NOT RULE OUT AND ROGUE SUPERCELLS THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
SWODY2 HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.  SEVERE THREAT MAY DIMINISH LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND TURN INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  PLAN ON RUNNING
HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES.

AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LINGER BEHIND...SO
PLAN ON KEEPING CLOUDS AND CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING.  CLEARING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY LOOKS
MOSTLY SUNNY AT THIS POINT.  AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MAV/FWC/MET
NUMBERS ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND PLAN ON USING A BLEND AND STAYING CLOSE.

---EXTENDED---

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT THIS TIME...CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT.  MODELS BRING A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
OUR WAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOLUTION AND HPC THINKS MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE APPS WILL KEEP
US DRY.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE CUT POPS BACK A LITTLE BIT
MORE THAN WHAT WAS IN THE GRIDS. ADDITIONALLY...NEW 12Z AVN
EXTENSION SLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WILL
GO WITH 30 POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND DRYING THINGS
OUT ON TUESDAY.  ALSO PLAN ON BUMPING UP TEMPS A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY SINCE PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD.

---IFPS/GFE---

NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE GRIDS...RELOADED SFC WINDS THROUGH 48
HOURS.  ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS TO REFLECT ABOVE THOUGHTS AND UPCOMING
FORECAST.  IN THE EXTENDED...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.

---PRELIM NUMBERS---

LOZ 69/87 67/78 2584
JKL 71/87 67/77 2584

.JKL...NONE.

JARVIS