Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EST MON MAR 18 2002

DUE TO NUMEROUS FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE TO BE
KIND OF BRIEF WITH THIS AFD. VERY SERIOUS FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE HEADWATERS OF
THE KY RIVER ARE RISING. PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS PACKAGE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE SHORT TERM...AND FOR HOW LONG TO CONTINUE WITH THE
FLOOD WATCH.

05Z SFC CHART SHOWING A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL SHOWING ONE COLD FRONTAL BNDRY WITH NUMEROUS
LOWS OVER OH/IN/IL AND DOWN INTO AR, WITH ANOTHER BNDRY OVER THE
TN/MS VALLEY INTO E TN. 00Z 8H AND 5H CHART SHOWING A VERY MOIST SW
FLOW. RADAR SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO
FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH LIGHTER RAINS
FALLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. STORM TOTAL PRECIPS SHOWING THAT
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...TAPERING OFF STEADILY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

MODELS ARGUE THAT THE RAIN TODAY WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THIS DIURNAL TREND HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND BASED ON RADAR MOSAICS THIS LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS TODAY WITH MENTION OF MAINLY THIS MORNING. THEN WE SHOULD GET
INTO A LULL (AGAIN) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT WAVE/ROUND OF RAINS WONT MOVE IN
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING TIMING OF
PCPN WELL AT ALL LATELY SO I AM A LITTLE LEARY. MODELS HAVE ALSO
BEEN TOO LIGHT ON THE QPFS. DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH FLOODING IS
ONGOING AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM
TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2-2/3 OF THE CWA. WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE
THE CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE WATCH INTO TONIGHT FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINS.

ETA/AVN MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING A BIT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AXIS WILL SET UP FOR TUE-WED. NOW THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE
RAINS BACK MORE SO ACROSS KY AND SOUTHERN OH/IL/IN...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC. THE EXTENDED ETA IS SIMILAR TO THE
AVN/CANADIAN. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTH...BUT HOW FAR NORTH IS IN QUESTION. IM GOING TO
REMAIN A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC FOR TUE AND WED AND KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING...WHICH WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY AS FAR AS FLOODING PROBLEMS
ARE CONCERNED. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA OF FLOOD PROBLEMS
WILL LIFT MORE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CUMBERLAND BASIN...BUT
MORE INTO THE KY RIVER BASIN AND THE LICKING BASIN.

PCPN SHOULD END ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WED NIGHT AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
FINALLY WINDS UP AND LIFTS OUT. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR
THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE THUR AND NOT FRIDAY AS WE HAVE IN THE ZONES NOW. THAT PCPN
WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT THOUGH AND NOT CAUSE ANYMORE FLOOD PROBLEMS.

AVN/NGM MOS SIMILAR AND LOOK CLOSE. WILL USE A BLEND WHERE
DIFFERENCES DO OCCUR.

GFE/IFPS...JUST PLAN ON TWEAKING THE DATA BASE HERE AND THERE AS
NEEDED BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL RAISE THE POPS SOMEWHAT FOR
WED DURING THE DAY.

WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO AWFUL LONG UNDER SDFOZFJKL. FURTHER
COORDINATION WELCOME.

THANKS TO SDF AND MRX FOR COORDINATION.

.JKL...FFA FOR THE ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY UNTIL 4
PM.

HALL