Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

CURRENTLY...GA ZONES UNDER SLIGHT RISK TODAY. CLOUD MASS FROM
DECAYING MCS NOW OVER OUR GA ZONES (WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY
RESIDES) MOVING SW WITH A VORT MAX OFFSHORE OF NE FL. SFC LOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER S SC...WITH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS N SC. ALOFT A LARGE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE E PLAINS WAS
BRINGING A SW STEERING FLOW TO THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE JAX
FORECAST AREA...A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS S
FL INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LVL LOW FORMING
WEST OF THE FL KEYS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SFC...WITH JUICY DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...CURRENT VORT OFFSHORE OF NE FL WILL MOVE W AND MERGE
OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY FROM THIS AMS MCS...AS VORT
MIN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)
TONIGHT. SFC LOW ALONG THE SE SEABOARD TRACKS WESTWARD INTO MS
THROUGH SUN ELONGATING ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL GA.
ALOFT H5 HIGH OVER THE PLAINS LINGERS ENHANCING A W-SOUTHWEST STORM
PROPAGATION COUPLED WITH E-SE LOW LVL FLOW. A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
THIS AM MAY OCCUR SUN AM WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING S-SW INTO GA SUN AM. FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE SUN AS SYNOPTIC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PRESS GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE SE COAST. WILL ANTICIPATE MORNING
COASTAL SHOWERS TO PROPAGATE INLAND...WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION
ALONG FL WEST COAST AND ACROSS OUR S FL ZONES...AND LITTLE
PROPAGATION EASTWARD. VORT MIN OVER MUCH OF OUR N FL FA SUN
AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING...BUT SHORTWAVE OVER S FL AND ALONG
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH GA WILL LIKELY HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
AREA.

MON AND TUE IMPULSES FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL FL EAST
COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH AXIS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WILL
TREND TOWARD 40% CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SB CONVECTION MON AND TUE.
SHORT TERM HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. INLAND HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90 PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOW TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC SFC HIGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHWARD
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OVER SOUTH FL AS AN UPR LVL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WED-THU. ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN
GOMEX MOVES INLAND FRI AS PVA IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPR LVL TROUGH. SAT RIDGE RE-BUILDS OVER FL PENINSULA. WILL GO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHC OF CONVECTION WED-THU-SAT...AND FRI CHC WITH
MO CLOUDY WORDING. WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FA...ANTICIPATE WARMER THAN CLIMO TEMPS TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
LVL S-SW FLOW.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES.

PRELIM CCF
AMG BB 072/089 071/091 070 24343
SSI BB 074/086 074/087 074 24242
JAX BB 072/088 072/089 071 24232
SGJ BB 074/087 074/088 074 24232
GNV BB 070/090 071/091 070 24343
OCF BB 070/090 071/091 070 24343=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BROYLES/SHASHY