Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2002

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DRIFTING WEST.
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COASTAL WATERS. VORT MAX
OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST MOVING NE. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THE VORT MAX WAS RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PREVALENT OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. THE PCP WAS MOVING NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEABREEZE...ALSO MOVING NORTH.

PUBLIC...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SLIGHT DRYING MAINLY ABOVE
700 MB...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS NEAR EAST COAST LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND
INLAND AREAS MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS ALOFT ARE RATHER
WARM...SO MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS 2+
INCHES.

EXTENDED...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NW...SURFACE HIGH
MOVES SOUTH TO NEAR BERMUDA AND SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN SETTING IN...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION ENHANCED
BY THE SEABREEZES EACH DAY.

MARINE...NO HIGHLITES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

PRELIM
AMG TT 071/088 071/089 071 08766
SSI TT 073/084 075/085 075 08564
JAX TT 071/087 072/088 072 08565
SGJ TT 074/085 074/086 074 08565
GNV TT 070/088 070/089 070 08766
OCF TT 070/087 070/089 070 08766=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

PP/JH

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-232200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2002

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
...HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WITH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS
TIME.

DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE NEAR AND AFTER
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. SINCE RIP CURRENTS ARE
RELATIVELY NARROW...YOU CAN ESCAPE THE FLOW BY SWIMMING PARALLEL TO
THE SHORE UNTIL YOU BREAK FREE...THEN SWIM DIAGONALLY TOWARD THE
SHORE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

HESS