Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2002

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM
INLAND AND DEVELOP OVER COASTAL COUNTIES MOSTLY SOUTH OF GUANA RIVER
STATE PARK. A LARGE THUNDERSTORM WAS WEAKENING NEAR JUNIPER SPRINGS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW PTS NEAR 70.
INLAND WINDS NE TO E 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS.
CONVERGENT FLOW IS GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FL ZONES
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...BASED ON COMPARISON BETWEEN 12Z OBS AND MODELS...BELIEVE
ETA SOLUTIONS BEST DEPICT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT SFC AND ALOFT. UPR LVL
LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE OF A
TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN FL PULLS NORTHWARD BECOMING ORIENTED MORE
ZONALLY W TO E THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z. WILL GO PARTLY
CLOUDY ALL ZONES AND 20% TO 40% FOR FL ZONES. FOR GA ANTICIPATE NIL
POP AS SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL LOW...EXCEPT 20% FOR COAST DUE TO CONTINUED ON SHORE
FLOW. WINDS WILL GO CALM SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
INLAND AREAS. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY BASED ON RADAR OBS NEAR
ISSUANCE TIME.

WED...UPR LVL IMPULSES WEAKEN OVER N FL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FL. WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS REMAIN EASTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD STILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. STEERING FLOW FOR STORM
PROPAGATION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT ABOUT 10 KTS. WILL GO
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST ZONES AND NIL POPS FOR INLAND GA AND 20%
COAST. FOR N FL BELIEVE 4O-60% WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

WED NIGHT...SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX WITH UPR LVL TROUGH
AXIS ABOVE IT ORIENTED SW-NE. THE ATLANTIC HIGH AXIS MOVES NORTH
INTO GA ZONES. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. ANTICIPATE GOOD CHC
(40%) OF POPS FOR S FL ZONES. WILL DECREASE POPS TO NIL NORTHWARD
INTO INTERIOR GA WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT PRECIP WITH SFC HIGH
PARKED OVER APPALACHIANS...EXCEPT WILL KEEP 20% AT COAST FOR EVENING
SHOWERS. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING ALL ZONES.

THU...ETA SOLUTIONS DEPICT A FRONT INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD STATES WHILE ABUNDANT LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER FL. SFC
LOW WEST OF THE PENINSULA WASHES OUT OVER THE STATE. WILL TREND
TOWARD 40% POP FOR FL ZONES AND 20% GA AS SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO GA ZONES WITH UPR LVL
TROUGH ABOVE PER THE ETA. WILL GO 20% FOR ALL ZONES INCLUDING FL TO
ACCOUNT FOR EVENING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AS SW FLOW PERSISTS.

FRI...CHC AREA WIDE WITH 50% POPS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER FL
AHEAD OVER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA.

EXTENDED...COLD FRONT PASSAGE HOLDS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH AXIS IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. THE FRONT
WEAKENS OVER SOUTH FL SUN AS A SFC LOW GENERATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. ENERGY FROM THIS WEAKENING
SFC FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON AND AS AN UPR
LVL TROUGH FORMS ALOFT. THE SFC LOW BECOMES DIFFUSE INTO TUE AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH AXIS BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD BRINGING A S-SW FLOW. WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHC SAT WITH FRONT MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR SUN MOSTLY SUNNY FOLLOWING FROPA...THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHC MON AND TUE AS EAST COAST SB SHOULD BE ACTIVE UNDER
SW FLOW AND LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING
SOUTHWEST LOW.

MARINE...NE-E WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTH LATE WED. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIM...
AMG BB 068/092 069/093 070 24000
SSI BB 072/087 073/090 073 24222
JAX BB 069/089 071/093 071 24244
SGJ BB 073/088 074/091 074 24354
GNV BB 069/091 070/093 072 24464
OCF BB 070/092 071/094 072 24464=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BROYLES/CARROLL

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-112200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1155 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2002

...GOOD CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR SAFETY...SWIM ONLY AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE LIFEGUARDS OR BEACH PATROL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL