Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2002

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALL
ACROSS CWA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE AS EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE RATHER SMALL THIS PM.

FORECAST...NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE IS LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER AT THE AREA ON DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH
BEST CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. COASTAL AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS A
BIT HIGHER FOR INLAND FLORIDA COUNTIES. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. WILL GO NEAR AVN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 80 IF CLOUD COVER
HOLDS TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY. SAT NIGHT...DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
CWA BUT MODELS INDICATED POSSIBLITY FOR COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. DEEP MOISTURE RECOVERS PRETTY QUICKLY FOR
SUNDAY WITH EAST FLOW CONTINUING. NEW ETA AND AVN BOTH SHOW H5 LOW
RETROGRADING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTH OF H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW A BIT. WOULD
EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY TO BE INLAND WITH WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BUT COASTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

EXTDD...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EAST-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF CWA. AVN/CANADIAN DEVELOP SFC
LOWS TO SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA RESPECTIVELY BUT WILL DISREGARD FOR
NOW AS BOTH OF THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING SUCH SYSTEMS AS
OF LATE. FEEL THE 12Z/06 ECMWF HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS IT. BASICALLY RIDGE JUST TO NORTH OF AREA JUST KEEP
DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ALL WANT TO DEEPEN A TROUGH OVER EAST COAST AND SEND A
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES
THIS PRETTY WELL SO WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

MARINE...12Z AVN ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN 12Z ETA ON BRINGING SURGE
INTO COASTAL ZONES. WILL OPT FOR ON WINDS BRINGING SCEC FOR SAT AND
SAT NIGHT.

PRELIM
AMG EB 072/082 067/086 068 25653
SSI EB 075/079 074/080 074 25552
JAX EB 072/081 068/082 068 25653
SGJ EB 073/081 072/082 072 25653
GNV EB 070/087 068/087 069 25653
OCF EB 071/087 069/087 070 25653=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

CAMP/TRABERT

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-072100-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1230 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2002

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG AND THE GREATEST HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.  SINCE STORM MOTION WILL BE
SLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

TRABERT