Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2002

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH
SEABREEZES AS WELL AS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
IS MAINLY SOUTHERLY THIS PM WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH COASTS MORE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES ARE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AOB 2000 J/KG SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY AN
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER PRETTY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER GEORGIA WITH FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TO NORTHERN BORDER OF CWA
BEFORE STALLING ON FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PRETTY ACTIVE DAY FOR
CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PREVENT
GOOD HEATING. ETA AND MAV GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
FRIDAY SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. FOR SATURDAY...ETA AND
AVN APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR AT FIRST GLANCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN COAST AND EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AND REMANTS
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER
AVN DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY AND SPITS OUT OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER KJAX.
ETA PUSHES NORTHEAST WIND SURGE SOUTH THROUGH AREA MUCH MORE QUICKLY
AND DEVELOPS VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE OVER AREA. FOR NOW...WILL OPT
TO COMPROMISE BUT WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE STILL PRETTY
DEEP EARLY IN THE DAY EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EXTDD...12Z AVN NOW DROPS H5 LOW SOUTH OVER PENINSULA FOR FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MIGHT KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN TO SHOW THIS AND FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

AMG TW 073/088 072/085 069 25463
SSI TW 076/085 075/080 074 25465
JAX TW 073/088 072/083 070 25464
SGJ TW 075/085 075/082 072 25365
GNV TT 073/089 072/087 071 25574
OCF TT 073/089 072/088 071 25574=

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

CAMP

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-062300-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2002

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND NEAR U.S. 441 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG AND THE GREATEST HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL